Luxembourg v Iceland

0–3

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Luxembourg		Iceland
5	Shots	13
1	Shots on target	4
2	Corners	2
11	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	4
635	Passes	406
60%	Possession %	40%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 67%
Over 2.5: 39%
Over 3.5: 19%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: Iceland 39%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.05 – 1.21

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Luxembourg	30.8%	3.25	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	-0.5
Match result	Draw	30.1%	3.32	—	—	—
Match result	Iceland	39.1%	2.56	2.35 Betano	42.6%	-3.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	66.8%	1.50	1.39 Betano	71.9%	-5.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	33.2%	3.01	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	+1.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	39.3%	2.54	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-6.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	60.7%	1.65	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	+1.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	19.3%	5.19	4.10 BetVictor	24.4%	-5.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	80.7%	1.24	1.25 Bet365	80.0%	+0.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.4%	2.15	1.91 William Hill	52.4%	-6.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.6%	1.87	1.91 Betfair	52.4%	+1.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Iceland favoured against Luxembourg

Our model makes Luxembourg 31% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 30% and Iceland at 39%. The goal projection is 1.05 for Luxembourg against 1.21 for Iceland — a slight edge to Iceland on expected output. A combined 2.26 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 12%; 0-0 11%; 1-0 10%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Luxembourg and Iceland
Luxembourg		Iceland
4	Played	4
1-0-3	W-D-L	2-2-0
0.75	Pts / game	2.00
0.50	Goals for / game	1.75
1.75	Goals against / game	0.25
50%	Over 2.5	50%
25%	BTTS	25%
0%	Clean sheets	75%
75%	Failed to score	25%
0-0-2	Home record	1-1-0
1-0-1	Away record	1-1-0
L3	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Luxembourg · Iceland

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.5	Shots	13.5
4.3	Shots on target	4.8
3.5	Corners	6.3
2.75	Cards	2.00
13.8	Fouls	11.5
56	Possession %	54
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.5	Shots	9.0
6.3	Shots on target	3.0
4.5	Corners	2.3
3.00	Cards	2.25
12.8	Fouls	12.0
44	Possession %	46
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Luxembourg	Metric	Iceland
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
0.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
4.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.50
11.25 (better)	Total shots	9.25
	Touches in opp. box
3.50 (better)	Corners	2.75
54.0 (better)	Possession %	47.3
462 (better)	Passes	438
	Tackles
13.75	Fouls	11.75 (better)
1.75 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	2.75
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Luxembourg wins: 0
Draws: 0
Iceland wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Luxembourg v Iceland0–32026-09-29