Lusitânia Lourosa v Os Limianos

2–1

14:00 UTC

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 67%
Over 3.5: 46%
Both score: 68%

Model pick: Os Limianos 40%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.71 – 1.77

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Lusitânia Lourosa	36.9%	2.71	1.18 William Hill	84.7%	-47.8
Match result	Draw	23.5%	4.26	6.50 BetVictor	15.4%	+8.1
Match result	Os Limianos	39.6%	2.53	21.00 Bet365	4.8%	+34.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.7%	1.15	1.25 BetVictor	80.0%	+6.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	13.3%	7.52	4.75 BetVictor	21.1%	-7.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	67.4%	1.48	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	+10.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	32.6%	3.07	2.15 Bet365	46.5%	-13.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	45.8%	2.19	3.20 BetVictor	31.3%	+14.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	54.2%	1.84	1.49 BetVictor	67.1%	-12.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	68.4%	1.46	3.00 BetVictor	33.3%	+35.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	31.6%	3.17	1.44 William Hill	69.4%	-37.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lusitânia Lourosa v Os Limianos: too close to call

Our model makes Lusitânia Lourosa 37% to win this Taça de Portugal fixture, with the draw at 23% and Os Limianos at 40%. The goal projection is 1.71 for Lusitânia Lourosa against 1.77 for Os Limianos — almost nothing to Os Limianos on expected output. A combined 3.47 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 5%

This season

Season records for Lusitânia Lourosa and Os Limianos
Lusitânia Lourosa		Os Limianos
2	Played	3
2-0-0	W-D-L	2-0-1
3.00	Pts / game	2.00
2.50	Goals for / game	2.67
1.00	Goals against / game	1.00
100%	Over 2.5	100%
100%	BTTS	67%
0%	Clean sheets	33%
0%	Failed to score	0%
1-0-0	Home record	1-0-0
1-0-0	Away record	1-0-1
W2	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lusitânia Lourosa · Os Limianos

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

No full-match statistics on record yet this season.

Conceded

No full-match statistics on record yet this season.

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lusitânia Lourosa	Metric	Os Limianos
2.20	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
1.00	Goals conceded	1.00
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
6.50	Shots on target
19.00	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
5.50	Corners
44.0	Possession %
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
3.33	Yellow cards
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lusitânia Lourosa wins: 1
Draws: 0
Os Limianos wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Lusitânia Lourosa v Os Limianos2–12026-10-18