Predicted Edge

Louletano v Rio Ave

Louletano won 1 of the last 30–1Rio Ave won 1 of the last 517th
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
34%
Both score
56%
Model pick
Louletano 55%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.08

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultRio Ave21.3%4.701.55 William Hill64.5%-43.2
Total goalsOver 1.579.5%1.261.22 Bet36582.0%-2.4
Total goalsUnder 1.520.5%4.894.33 Bet36523.1%-2.6
Total goalsOver 2.556.1%1.781.73 Bet36557.8%-1.7
Total goalsUnder 2.543.9%2.282.08 Bet36548.1%-4.2
Total goalsOver 3.533.7%2.972.75 Bet36536.4%-2.7
Total goalsUnder 3.566.3%1.511.40 Bet36571.4%-5.1
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes56.1%1.781.80 Bet36555.6%+0.6
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No43.9%2.282.00 BetVictor50.0%-6.1
Match resultLouletano55.0%1.82———
Match resultDraw23.7%4.224.20 Bet36523.8%-0.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Louletano favoured against Rio Ave

Our model makes Louletano 55% to win this Taça de Portugal fixture, with the draw at 24% and Rio Ave at 21%. The goal projection is 1.85 for Louletano against 1.08 for Rio Ave — a substantial edge to Louletano on expected output. A combined 2.93 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 10%
1-0 9%
2-0 9%
3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Louletano and Rio Ave
Louletano Rio Ave
3Played11
1-1-1W-D-L2-1-8
1.33Pts / game0.64
0.67Goals for / game0.82
0.67Goals against / game2.18
0%Over 2.555%
33%BTTS27%
33%Clean sheets9%
33%Failed to score64%
0-0-1Home record1-1-4
1-1-0Away record1-0-4
L1StreakL3

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Louletano · Rio Ave

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots8.5
—Shots on target4.3
—Corners4.5
—Cards2.75
—Fouls13.0
—Possession %56
—xG0.95
—sample4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots12.5
—Shots on target4.3
—Corners5.8
—Cards0.50
—Fouls15.5
—Possession %45
—xG1.46
—sample4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
LouletanoMetricRio Ave
1.80 (better)Goals scored1.00
1.00 (better)Goals conceded2.40
Expected goals (xG)0.45
Big chances
Shots on target3.00
Total shots6.20
Touches in opp. box
Corners2.80
Possession %43.2
Passes361
Tackles
Fouls10.80
Offsides1.00
Throw-ins
Yellow cards1.40
Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Louletano wins
0
Draws
0
Rio Ave wins
1
Goals / game
1.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
0%