Lorient v Paris FC

10th1–03rd

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Lorient		Paris FC
8	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	3
3	Corners	9
9	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	3
470	Passes	699
40%	Possession %	60%
0.60	xG	0.99

Over 1.5: 72%
Over 2.5: 45%
Over 3.5: 24%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Paris FC 36%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.24 – 1.25

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

Lorient

3.15Betano · fair 3.04 · qualifies at 3.13+ · 0.42u

Why this price?

Back Lorient to win at 3.15 with Betano.

Our model puts the chance at 35% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 31%; we judge it at 33%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.04. The offered 3.15 implies only 32%, so the price is 3.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.42 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Lorient 1.24, Paris FC 1.25.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Lorient	35.4%	2.82	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	+8.4
Match result	Draw	28.6%	3.49	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	+0.1
Match result	Paris FC	35.9%	2.78	2.24 Dafabet	44.6%	-8.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	71.7%	1.39	1.32 Betano	75.8%	-4.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	28.3%	3.54	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-0.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	45.2%	2.21	2.00 Betano	50.0%	-4.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	54.8%	1.83	1.95 Betano	51.3%	+3.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	23.9%	4.18	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-5.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	76.1%	1.31	1.34 Betano	74.6%	+1.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.4%	1.95	1.80 William Hill	55.6%	-4.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.6%	2.06	2.12 Betano	47.2%	+1.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lorient v Paris FC: too close to call

Our model makes Lorient 35% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 29% and Paris FC at 36%. The goal projection is 1.24 for Lorient against 1.25 for Paris FC — almost nothing to Paris FC on expected output. A combined 2.49 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 10%; 1-0 10%; 0-0 9%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Lorient and Paris FC
Lorient		Paris FC
10	Played	10
4-3-3	W-D-L	6-2-2
1.50	Pts / game	2.00
0.90	Goals for / game	1.70
0.80	Goals against / game	1.00
30%	Over 2.5	60%
30%	BTTS	50%
60%	Clean sheets	40%
30%	Failed to score	30%
2-1-2	Home record	4-1-0
2-2-1	Away record	2-1-2
W1	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lorient · Paris FC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.5	Shots	14.3
2.3	Shots on target	5.5
4.0	Corners	4.0
1.83	Cards	2.83
12.2	Fouls	14.5
47	Possession %	53
1.20	xG	1.54
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.0	Shots	8.3
4.7	Shots on target	3.3
4.5	Corners	2.7
2.50	Cards	2.50
15.0	Fouls	15.5
53	Possession %	47
0.86	xG	1.12
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lorient	Metric	Paris FC
1.00	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.20	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
1.19	Expected goals (xG)	1.76 (better)
	Big chances
3.20	Shots on target	4.60 (better)
10.40	Total shots	13.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.40	Corners	3.00 (better)
48.0	Possession %	49.8 (better)
489	Passes	567 (better)
	Tackles
9.20 (better)	Fouls	13.80
0.80 (better)	Offsides	1.60
	Throw-ins
1.25 (better)	Yellow cards	1.60
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lorient wins: 2
Draws: 1
Paris FC wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.75
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 25%

Lorient v Paris FC1–02026-10-10
Lorient v Paris FC1–12026-04-05
Lorient v Paris FC2–02026-02-04
Paris FC v Lorient2–02025-10-03

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5