Llanera v Ponferradina

1–1aet, 3–5 pens

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Llanera		Ponferradina
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Fouls	—
2	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
—	Passes	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 59%
Over 3.5: 37%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: Ponferradina 41%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.44 – 1.62

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Llanera	33.6%	2.98	5.20 Dafabet	19.2%	+14.3
Match result	Draw	25.0%	4.00	4.20 Dafabet	23.8%	+1.2
Match result	Ponferradina	41.4%	2.41	1.68 Dafabet	59.5%	-18.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.5%	1.23	1.26 BetVictor	79.4%	+2.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.5%	5.41	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-1.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	59.0%	1.69	1.85 Bet365	54.1%	+5.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	41.0%	2.44	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-5.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	36.6%	2.73	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+5.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	63.4%	1.58	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-2.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.8%	1.62	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+6.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.2%	2.62	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-7.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Ponferradina favoured against Llanera

Our model makes Llanera 34% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 25% and Ponferradina at 41%. The goal projection is 1.44 for Llanera against 1.62 for Ponferradina — a slight edge to Ponferradina on expected output. A combined 3.06 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for Llanera and Ponferradina
Llanera		Ponferradina
1	Played	1
0-1-0	W-D-L	0-1-0
1.00	Pts / game	1.00
1.00	Goals for / game	1.00
1.00	Goals against / game	1.00
0%	Over 2.5	0%
100%	BTTS	100%
0%	Clean sheets	0%
0%	Failed to score	0%
0-1-0	Home record	0-0-0
0-0-0	Away record	0-1-0
D1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Llanera · Ponferradina

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
2.00	Cards	4.00
—	Fouls	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
4.00	Cards	2.00
—	Fouls	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Llanera	Metric	Ponferradina
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
2.40	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
	Shots on target
	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners
	Possession %
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Llanera wins: 0
Draws: 1
Ponferradina wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

Llanera v Ponferradina1–12026-10-27