Liverpool v Chelsea

4th1–1aet, 6–5 pens5th

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Liverpool		Chelsea
10	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	4
7	Corners	5
12	Fouls	9
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	3
441	Passes	422
52%	Possession %	48%
2.19	xG	1.88

Over 1.5: 93%
Over 2.5: 80%
Over 3.5: 62%
Both score: 78%

Model pick: Chelsea 41%
Likely score: 2-2 7%
Expected goals: 2.09 – 2.18

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Liverpool -0.5

2.25Bet365 · fair 2.05 · qualifies at 2.11+ · 1.93u

Why this price?

Back Liverpool -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.25 with Bet365 — Liverpool must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 38% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 56%; we judge it at 49%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.05. The offered 2.25 implies only 44%, so the price is 9.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.93 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Liverpool 2.09, Chelsea 2.18.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 2.5

1.67Bet365 · fair 1.52 · qualifies at 1.58+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back over 2.5 goals at 1.67 with Bet365 — 3 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 80% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 56%; we judge it at 66%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.52. The offered 1.67 implies only 60%, so the price is 9.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Liverpool 2.09, Chelsea 2.18.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Liverpool	38.0%	2.63	2.85 Dafabet	35.1%	+2.9
Match result	Draw	20.6%	4.85	4.05 Betano	24.7%	-4.1
Match result	Chelsea	41.4%	2.42	3.00 BetVictor	33.3%	+8.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	92.9%	1.08	1.17 Betano	85.5%	+7.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	7.1%	14.15	6.50 Betfair	15.4%	-8.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	79.9%	1.25	1.52 Betano	65.8%	+14.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	20.1%	4.96	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-14.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	61.7%	1.62	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	+23.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	38.3%	2.61	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	-19.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	78.0%	1.28	1.47 Betfair	68.0%	+10.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	22.0%	4.55	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-12.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Liverpool v Chelsea: too close to call

Our model makes Liverpool 38% to win this EFL Cup fixture, with the draw at 21% and Chelsea at 41%. The goal projection is 2.09 for Liverpool against 2.18 for Chelsea — almost nothing to Chelsea on expected output. A combined 4.27 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 80% and both teams to score at 78%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-2 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-2 7%; 1-2 7%; 1-1 7%; 2-1 7%; 2-3 5%

This season

Season records for Liverpool and Chelsea
Liverpool		Chelsea
10	Played	10
5-3-2	W-D-L	5-1-4
1.80	Pts / game	1.60
1.40	Goals for / game	1.90
1.00	Goals against / game	1.60
50%	Over 2.5	60%
40%	BTTS	50%
40%	Clean sheets	20%
30%	Failed to score	30%
1-2-2	Home record	3-1-1
4-1-0	Away record	2-0-3
W1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Liverpool · Chelsea

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.1	Shots	12.4
4.3	Shots on target	5.3
6.0	Corners	5.6
2.60	Cards	2.02
15.1	Fouls	9.7
49	Possession %	52
1.60	xG	1.39
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.0	Shots	10.6
3.3	Shots on target	4.3
3.9	Corners	5.4
2.48	Cards	3.45
10.0	Fouls	13.7
51	Possession %	48
1.40	xG	1.45
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Liverpool	Metric	Chelsea
2.60	Goals scored	3.00 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.80 (better)
1.98 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.08
	Big chances
6.00	Shots on target	6.00
18.80 (better)	Total shots	13.60
	Touches in opp. box
7.00 (better)	Corners	6.60
53.2	Possession %	56.0 (better)
479	Passes	505 (better)
	Tackles
12.20	Fouls	8.40 (better)
2.80	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.80	Yellow cards	1.20 (better)
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Liverpool wins: 0
Draws: 2
Chelsea wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 100%

Liverpool v Chelsea1–12026-10-28
Liverpool v Chelsea1–12026-05-09
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