Lillestrom v Brann

4th3–27th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Lillestrom		Brann
16	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	4
3	Corners	8
12	Fouls	14
3	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
264	Passes	595
30%	Possession %	70%
2.55	xG	1.48

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Lillestrom 37%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.42 – 1.42

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Lillestrom	36.9%	2.71	2.35 Betano	42.6%	-5.7
Match result	Draw	26.3%	3.80	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	+0.7
Match result	Brann	36.8%	2.72	2.80 Bet365	35.7%	+1.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.0%	1.28	1.13 Betano	88.5%	-10.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.0%	4.54	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	+7.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.8%	1.86	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-15.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.2%	2.16	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	+14.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.5%	3.18	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-16.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.5%	1.46	1.83 Bet365	54.6%	+13.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.9%	1.73	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-13.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.1%	2.38	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	+9.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lillestrom v Brann: too close to call

Our model makes Lillestrom 37% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 26% and Brann at 37%. The goal projection is 1.42 for Lillestrom against 1.42 for Brann — almost nothing to Lillestrom on expected output. A combined 2.83 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 8%; 0-1 8%

This season

Season records for Lillestrom and Brann
Lillestrom		Brann
26	Played	26
14-3-9	W-D-L	10-3-13
1.73	Pts / game	1.27
1.50	Goals for / game	1.81
1.35	Goals against / game	1.69
54%	Over 2.5	81%
46%	BTTS	77%
31%	Clean sheets	12%
27%	Failed to score	15%
7-1-5	Home record	7-0-6
7-2-4	Away record	3-3-7
W4	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lillestrom · Brann

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.5	Shots	15.7
5.3	Shots on target	5.2
6.2	Corners	7.5
1.33	Cards	2.53
10.3	Fouls	11.0
47	Possession %	57
1.84	xG	1.91
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.7	Shots	16.8
6.3	Shots on target	6.5
5.5	Corners	4.5
1.37	Cards	1.70
12.0	Fouls	12.0
54	Possession %	43
1.80	xG	2.45
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lillestrom	Metric	Brann
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
1.80	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.41	Expected goals (xG)	1.88 (better)
	Big chances
4.50	Shots on target	6.00 (better)
14.75	Total shots	18.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.25	Corners	11.00 (better)
53.0	Possession %	63.0 (better)
484	Passes	578 (better)
	Tackles
10.25 (better)	Fouls	11.00
1.50 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	1.67
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.67

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lillestrom wins: 2
Draws: 0
Brann wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Lillestrom v Brann3–22026-10-25
Brann v Lillestrom1–22026-09-05

Eliteserien table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Viking	26	20	2	4	+42	62	Viking won 4 of the last 5
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	+40	62	Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 5
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	+21	46	Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	+4	45	Lillestrom won 4 of the last 5
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	+20	44	Molde won 2 of the last 5
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	+3	40	Tromso won 0 of the last 5
7	Brann	26	10	3	13	+3	33	Brann won 1 of the last 5
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	-4	32	Valerenga won 3 of the last 5
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	26	8	7	11	-10	31	Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5
10	KFUM Oslo	26	8	7	11	-13	31	KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 5
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Ham-Kam won 2 of the last 5
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	-8	28	Sandefjord won 1 of the last 5
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	-21	26	Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	-15	24	Aalesund won 1 of the last 5
16	Start	26	5	4	17	-32	19	Start won 1 of the last 5