Lille v Le Havre

2nd1–018th

15:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Lille		Le Havre
5	Shots	17
1	Shots on target	2
4	Corners	5
17	Fouls	12
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	1
4	Offsides	1
408	Passes	448
47%	Possession %	53%
1.27	xG	1.36

Over 1.5: 69%
Over 2.5: 42%
Over 3.5: 21%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: Lille 50%
Likely score: 1-0 13%
Expected goals: 1.47 – 0.89

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 2.5

2.14Marathonbet · fair 2.00 · qualifies at 2.08+ · 1.56u

Why this price?

Back under 2.5 goals at 2.14 with Marathonbet — 2 goals or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 58% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 45%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.00. The offered 2.14 implies only 47%, so the price is 7.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.56 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Lille 1.47, Le Havre 0.89.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 1.5	30.9%	3.23	4.80 Betfair	20.8%	+10.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	42.0%	2.38	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	-15.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	58.0%	1.73	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+15.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	21.4%	4.68	2.65 Betano	37.7%	-16.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	78.6%	1.27	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+13.3
Match result	Lille	50.0%	2.00	1.50 Betano	66.7%	-16.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.8%	1.86	2.00 William Hill	50.0%	+3.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.2%	2.17	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-6.2
Match result	Draw	27.9%	3.58	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	+7.9
Match result	Le Havre	22.1%	4.53	7.50 Bet365	13.3%	+8.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	69.1%	1.45	1.22 Bet365	82.0%	-12.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lille favoured against Le Havre

Our model makes Lille 50% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 28% and Le Havre at 22%. The goal projection is 1.47 for Lille against 0.89 for Le Havre — a substantial edge to Lille on expected output. A combined 2.36 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 42% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 13%; 1-1 13%; 2-0 10%; 0-0 10%; 2-1 9%

This season

Season records for Lille and Le Havre
Lille		Le Havre
10	Played	10
6-3-1	W-D-L	0-2-8
2.10	Pts / game	0.20
1.40	Goals for / game	0.90
0.70	Goals against / game	2.20
30%	Over 2.5	50%
50%	BTTS	60%
50%	Clean sheets	10%
0%	Failed to score	40%
3-2-0	Home record	0-1-5
3-1-1	Away record	0-1-3
W2	Streak	L6

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lille · Le Havre

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.8	Shots	17.8
4.3	Shots on target	5.3
4.8	Corners	5.3
2.03	Cards	1.53
12.2	Fouls	14.0
53	Possession %	47
1.33	xG	1.88
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.7	Shots	10.8
3.2	Shots on target	5.0
4.2	Corners	3.5
2.03	Cards	1.83
14.5	Fouls	16.8
48	Possession %	53
1.30	xG	2.03
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lille	Metric	Le Havre
1.60	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.32	Expected goals (xG)	1.59 (better)
	Big chances
5.50 (better)	Shots on target	5.25
12.50	Total shots	15.75 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	5.25 (better)
53.3 (better)	Possession %	48.0
519 (better)	Passes	396
	Tackles
10.00 (better)	Fouls	15.25
2.00	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
0.75 (better)	Yellow cards	1.25
1.00	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lille wins: 2
Draws: 1
Le Havre wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.33
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 33%

Lille v Le Havre1–02026-10-10
Lille v Le Havre1–12026-05-03
Le Havre v Lille0–12025-11-30

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5