Levadiakos v Aris Thessalonikis

13th3–05th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Levadiakos		Aris Thessalonikis
10	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	2
3	Corners	8
14	Fouls	20
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
202	Passes	464
30%	Possession %	70%
2.45	xG	0.36

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 51%
Over 3.5: 29%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Levadiakos 38%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.38 – 1.33

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Levadiakos	37.7%	2.65	3.85 Betano	26.0%	+11.7
Match result	Draw	27.0%	3.70	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-2.4
Match result	Aris Thessalonikis	35.3%	2.83	2.17 Dafabet	46.1%	-10.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.8%	1.32	1.42 Betano	70.4%	+5.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.2%	4.13	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-6.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	50.7%	1.97	2.22 Betano	45.0%	+5.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	49.3%	2.03	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	-8.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	28.7%	3.49	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	+4.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	71.3%	1.40	1.26 Betano	79.4%	-8.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.5%	1.80	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+4.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.5%	2.25	1.90 Betfair	52.6%	-8.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Levadiakos v Aris Thessalonikis: too close to call

Our model makes Levadiakos 38% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Aris Thessalonikis at 35%. The goal projection is 1.38 for Levadiakos against 1.33 for Aris Thessalonikis — almost nothing to Levadiakos on expected output. A combined 2.70 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 8%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis
Levadiakos		Aris Thessalonikis
10	Played	10
1-3-6	W-D-L	6-1-3
0.60	Pts / game	1.90
0.40	Goals for / game	1.60
1.30	Goals against / game	1.70
30%	Over 2.5	80%
10%	BTTS	50%
40%	Clean sheets	20%
80%	Failed to score	40%
1-1-3	Home record	4-1-0
0-2-3	Away record	2-0-3
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Levadiakos · Aris Thessalonikis

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.8	Shots	14.8
3.7	Shots on target	4.8
4.5	Corners	4.6
1.70	Cards	1.80
12.8	Fouls	17.2
41	Possession %	58
0.90	xG	1.29
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.2	Shots	10.4
2.7	Shots on target	3.2
6.0	Corners	3.6
2.90	Cards	1.40
15.5	Fouls	13.6
59	Possession %	42
0.88	xG	1.05
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Levadiakos	Metric	Aris Thessalonikis
0.00	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
1.00	Goals conceded	1.00
0.70	Expected goals (xG)	1.48 (better)
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	4.25 (better)
11.60	Total shots	18.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.40	Corners	5.75 (better)
50.4	Possession %	54.0 (better)
394	Passes	409 (better)
	Tackles
14.20 (better)	Fouls	15.25
2.80	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.80	Yellow cards	1.75 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Levadiakos wins: 1
Draws: 3
Aris Thessalonikis wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.80
Over 2.5: 60%
Both score: 60%

Levadiakos v Aris Thessalonikis3–02026-11-01
Aris Thessalonikis v Levadiakos3–02026-05-17
Levadiakos v Aris Thessalonikis1–12026-04-05
Aris Thessalonikis v Levadiakos2–22026-01-25
Levadiakos v Aris Thessalonikis1–12025-10-26

Greek Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Panathinaikos	10	9	0	1	+17	27	Panathinaikos won 4 of the last 5
2	Olympiakos Piraeus	10	7	2	1	+11	23	Olympiakos Piraeus won 4 of the last 5
3	AEK Athens FC	9	6	2	1	+17	20	AEK Athens FC won 4 of the last 5
4	PAOK	10	6	1	3	+6	19	PAOK won 2 of the last 5
5	Aris Thessalonikis	10	6	1	3	-1	19	Aris Thessalonikis won 4 of the last 5
6	OFI	10	5	2	3	+2	17	OFI won 2 of the last 5
7	Kifisia	10	4	2	4	0	14	Kifisia won 3 of the last 5
8	Kalamata	10	3	3	4	-4	12	Kalamata won 2 of the last 5
9	Iraklis 1908	10	2	4	4	-3	10	Iraklis 1908 won 1 of the last 5
10	Panetolikos	10	3	0	7	-12	9	Panetolikos won 0 of the last 5
11	Asteras Tripolis	10	1	4	5	-9	7	Asteras Tripolis won 1 of the last 5
12	Atromitos	9	1	3	5	-3	6	Atromitos won 1 of the last 5
13	Levadiakos	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Levadiakos won 1 of the last 5
14	Volos NFC	10	0	3	7	-12	3	Volos NFC won 0 of the last 5