Lens v Lyon

11th2–15th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Lens		Lyon
15	Shots	13
7	Shots on target	5
7	Corners	4
13	Fouls	12
1	Yellow cards	1
1	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
454	Passes	488
48%	Possession %	52%
1.38	xG	1.05

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 60%
Over 3.5: 38%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: Lens 41%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.64 – 1.46

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Lens -0.25

1.95Betano · fair 1.87 · qualifies at 1.93+ · 1.14u

Why this price?

Back Lens -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.95 with Betano — Lens must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 47% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 58%; we judge it at 54%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.87. The offered 1.95 implies only 51%, so the price is 4.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.14 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Lens 1.64, Lyon 1.46.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Lens	41.4%	2.42	2.55 Bet365	39.2%	+2.2
Match result	Draw	25.0%	4.00	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	-0.6
Match result	Lyon	33.6%	2.98	2.85 Dafabet	35.1%	-1.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.3%	1.22	1.18 Betano	84.7%	-2.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.7%	5.64	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	-0.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	60.1%	1.67	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-4.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	40.0%	2.50	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+0.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	37.7%	2.65	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-3.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	62.3%	1.60	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+2.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.7%	1.60	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-6.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.3%	2.68	2.80 Betfair	35.7%	+1.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lens favoured against Lyon

Our model makes Lens 41% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 25% and Lyon at 34%. The goal projection is 1.64 for Lens against 1.46 for Lyon — a slight edge to Lens on expected output. A combined 3.11 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for Lens and Lyon
Lens		Lyon
10	Played	10
4-1-5	W-D-L	5-2-3
1.30	Pts / game	1.70
1.70	Goals for / game	1.50
1.50	Goals against / game	0.90
80%	Over 2.5	40%
80%	BTTS	40%
0%	Clean sheets	40%
20%	Failed to score	30%
3-0-2	Home record	4-1-0
1-1-3	Away record	1-1-3
L2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lens · Lyon

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.2	Shots	12.7
4.3	Shots on target	5.0
5.2	Corners	4.0
1.70	Cards	1.53
13.5	Fouls	11.8
49	Possession %	52
1.25	xG	1.60
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.7	Shots	13.0
4.8	Shots on target	5.7
4.8	Corners	5.8
1.50	Cards	2.03
11.7	Fouls	11.5
51	Possession %	48
1.41	xG	1.36
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lens	Metric	Lyon
1.40	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.80	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
1.74	Expected goals (xG)	1.90 (better)
	Big chances
6.20	Shots on target	6.40 (better)
17.60 (better)	Total shots	13.80
	Touches in opp. box
8.00 (better)	Corners	4.80
53.0 (better)	Possession %	50.4
480 (better)	Passes	440
	Tackles
11.80	Fouls	11.20 (better)
1.80 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.50	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lens wins: 2
Draws: 1
Lyon wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 75%
Both score: 50%

Lens v Lyon2–12026-10-09
Lyon v Lens0–42026-05-17
Lyon v Lens2–22026-03-05
Lens v Lyon0–12025-08-16

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5