Legia Warszawa v Lech Poznan

3rd1–21st

16:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Legia Warszawa		Lech Poznan
17	Shots	11
9	Shots on target	5
9	Corners	5
15	Fouls	12
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
479	Passes	381
56%	Possession %	44%
1.54	xG	1.30

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Legia Warszawa 38%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.50 – 1.48

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.2%	1.75	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-0.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.8%	2.34	2.18 Betano	45.9%	-3.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.8%	2.87	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	-1.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.2%	1.53	1.47 Betano	68.0%	-2.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.5%	2.54	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-1.4
Match result	Legia Warszawa	37.8%	2.65	2.75 William Hill	36.4%	+1.4
Match result	Draw	25.5%	3.92	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-2.3
Match result	Lech Poznan	36.7%	2.73	2.65 Dafabet	37.7%	-1.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.3%	1.25	1.22 Bet365	82.0%	-1.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.7%	5.08	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	-3.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.6%	1.65	1.57 William Hill	63.7%	-3.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Legia Warszawa v Lech Poznan: too close to call

Our model makes Legia Warszawa 38% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 26% and Lech Poznan at 37%. The goal projection is 1.50 for Legia Warszawa against 1.48 for Lech Poznan — almost nothing to Legia Warszawa on expected output. A combined 2.98 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 7%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan
Legia Warszawa		Lech Poznan
14	Played	13
6-6-2	W-D-L	10-2-1
1.71	Pts / game	2.46
1.79	Goals for / game	2.62
1.07	Goals against / game	1.00
43%	Over 2.5	85%
71%	BTTS	77%
29%	Clean sheets	23%
7%	Failed to score	8%
3-2-2	Home record	6-2-0
3-4-0	Away record	4-0-1
L1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Legia Warszawa · Lech Poznan

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.5	Shots	19.3
4.3	Shots on target	7.2
4.0	Corners	7.2
1.33	Cards	1.67
12.7	Fouls	11.0
49	Possession %	59
1.11	xG	2.48
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.2	Shots	12.2
4.3	Shots on target	5.0
3.8	Corners	4.7
1.83	Cards	2.03
15.3	Fouls	12.5
52	Possession %	41
1.59	xG	1.18
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Legia Warszawa	Metric	Lech Poznan
3.00 (better)	Goals scored	2.20
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.40
1.24	Expected goals (xG)	2.20 (better)
	Big chances
4.33	Shots on target	5.75 (better)
13.33	Total shots	17.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	5.75 (better)
43.0	Possession %	52.0 (better)
370	Passes	477 (better)
	Tackles
13.67	Fouls	7.75 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.25
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	1.50
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Legia Warszawa wins: 0
Draws: 1
Lech Poznan wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Legia Warszawa v Lech Poznan1–22026-10-25
Lech Poznan v Legia Warszawa4–02026-04-26
Legia Warszawa v Lech Poznan0–02025-10-26

Ekstraklasa table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	+21	32	Lech Poznan won 4 of the last 5
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	+11	31	Gornik Zabrze won 2 of the last 5
3	Legia Warszawa	14	6	6	2	+10	24	Legia Warszawa won 1 of the last 5
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Pogon Szczecin won 3 of the last 5
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	+3	24	Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	+1	23	Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	+5	21	GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5
9	Jagiellonia	13	7	0	6	0	21	Jagiellonia won 3 of the last 5
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	-7	18	Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	-7	15	Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5
13	Widzew Łódź	14	2	8	4	+1	14	Widzew Łódź won 1 of the last 5
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	-12	14	Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	-7	12	Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5
16	Raków Częstochowa	14	4	0	10	-8	12	Raków Częstochowa won 3 of the last 5
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	-8	10	Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5
18	Wieczysta Kraków	14	2	2	10	-10	8	Wieczysta Kraków won 0 of the last 5