Lech Poznan won 4 of the last 5DWWWW1st3–1Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5WLWDL5th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Lech Poznan
Wisla Krakow
19
Shots
16
8
Shots on target
3
7
Corners
2
14
Fouls
9
0
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
6
398
Passes
367
52%
Possession %
48%
2.31
xG
1.62
57%
21%
21%
1 · Lech PoznanXWisla Krakow · 2
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
44%
Both score
63%
Model pick
Lech Poznan 57%
Likely score
2-1 10%
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.25
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Under 2.5
34.1%
2.93
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-3.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
44.0%
2.27
2.22 Betano
45.0%
-1.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
56.0%
1.79
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-3.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
63.5%
1.58
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
-3.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
36.5%
2.74
2.70 BetVictor
37.0%
-0.5
Match result
Lech Poznan
57.3%
1.75
1.84 Dafabet
54.3%
+3.0
Match result
Draw
21.4%
4.67
4.10 Dafabet
24.4%
-3.0
Match result
Wisla Krakow
21.3%
4.70
4.20 Dafabet
23.8%
-2.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
85.7%
1.17
1.16 Betano
86.2%
-0.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
14.3%
6.99
6.00 Bet365
16.7%
-2.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
65.9%
1.52
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
-0.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Lech Poznan favoured against Wisla Krakow
Our model makes Lech Poznan 57% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 21% and Wisla Krakow at 21%. The goal projection is 2.14 for Lech Poznan against 1.25 for Wisla Krakow — a substantial edge to Lech Poznan on expected output. A combined 3.39 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lech Poznan
Metric
Wisla Krakow
2.60 (better)
Goals scored
1.60
1.80
Goals conceded
1.20 (better)
1.90
Expected goals (xG)
1.90
—
Big chances *
—
5.00
Shots on target
6.00 (better)
14.00
Total shots
21.50 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.00
Corners
6.25 (better)
50.5 (better)
Possession %
50.3
455 (better)
Passes
416
—
Tackles
—
9.00 (better)
Fouls
10.75
1.25 (better)
Offsides
1.50
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.50
Yellow cards
1.50
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Lech Poznan v 
Wisla Krakow