Lech Poznan v Korona Kielce

1st6–111th

15:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Lech Poznan		Korona Kielce
14	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	5
5	Corners	7
13	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
530	Passes	340
60%	Possession %	40%
2.32	xG	1.25

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Lech Poznan 58%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.95 – 1.04

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Lech Poznan	57.9%	1.73	1.60 Bet365	62.5%	-4.6
Match result	Draw	23.0%	4.35	4.80 Dafabet	20.8%	+2.1
Match result	Korona Kielce	19.2%	5.22	6.40 Betano	15.6%	+3.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.5%	1.24	1.18 Betano	84.7%	-4.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.5%	5.13	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-0.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.4%	1.74	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-6.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.6%	2.35	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+3.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.0%	2.86	2.38 Bet365	42.0%	-7.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.0%	1.54	1.60 Betano	62.5%	+2.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.1%	1.78	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-3.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.9%	2.28	2.25 BetVictor	44.4%	-0.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lech Poznan favoured against Korona Kielce

Our model makes Lech Poznan 58% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 23% and Korona Kielce at 19%. The goal projection is 1.95 for Lech Poznan against 1.04 for Korona Kielce — a commanding edge to Lech Poznan on expected output. A combined 2.99 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 10%; 1-0 9%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Lech Poznan and Korona Kielce
Lech Poznan		Korona Kielce
13	Played	14
10-2-1	W-D-L	5-3-6
2.46	Pts / game	1.29
2.62	Goals for / game	1.00
1.00	Goals against / game	1.50
85%	Over 2.5	29%
77%	BTTS	50%
23%	Clean sheets	14%
8%	Failed to score	36%
6-2-0	Home record	2-3-2
4-0-1	Away record	3-0-4
D1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lech Poznan · Korona Kielce

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
19.3	Shots	20.4
7.2	Shots on target	6.0
7.2	Corners	10.8
1.67	Cards	2.00
11.0	Fouls	10.6
59	Possession %	53
2.48	xG	1.35
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.2	Shots	10.4
5.0	Shots on target	2.8
4.7	Corners	3.4
2.03	Cards	3.00
12.5	Fouls	17.4
41	Possession %	47
1.18	xG	1.48
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lech Poznan	Metric	Korona Kielce
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
2.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
3.02 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	2.38
	Big chances
5.25	Shots on target	5.75 (better)
17.25 (better)	Total shots	12.75
	Touches in opp. box
5.75 (better)	Corners	5.25
54.5 (better)	Possession %	39.0
476 (better)	Passes	394
	Tackles
10.00 (better)	Fouls	11.75
1.75 (better)	Offsides	2.25
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lech Poznan wins: 2
Draws: 1
Korona Kielce wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 100%

Lech Poznan v Korona Kielce6–12026-10-18
Korona Kielce v Lech Poznan1–22026-02-22
Lech Poznan v Korona Kielce1–12025-08-16

Ekstraklasa table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	+21	32	Lech Poznan won 4 of the last 5
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	+11	31	Gornik Zabrze won 2 of the last 5
3	Legia Warszawa	14	6	6	2	+10	24	Legia Warszawa won 1 of the last 5
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Pogon Szczecin won 3 of the last 5
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	+3	24	Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	+1	23	Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	+5	21	GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5
9	Jagiellonia	13	7	0	6	0	21	Jagiellonia won 3 of the last 5
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	-7	18	Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	-7	15	Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5
13	Widzew Łódź	14	2	8	4	+1	14	Widzew Łódź won 1 of the last 5
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	-12	14	Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	-7	12	Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5
16	Raków Częstochowa	14	4	0	10	-8	12	Raków Częstochowa won 3 of the last 5
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	-8	10	Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5
18	Wieczysta Kraków	14	2	2	10	-10	8	Wieczysta Kraków won 0 of the last 5