Leatherhead v Hanworth Villa

1–0

14:00 UTC

Over 1.5: 88%
Over 2.5: 70%
Over 3.5: 48%
Both score: 69%

Model pick: Hanworth Villa 49%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.56 – 2.04

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Leatherhead	29.0%	3.45	2.30 BetVictor	43.5%	-14.5
Match result	Draw	22.4%	4.47	3.70 Betano	27.0%	-4.6
Match result	Hanworth Villa	48.6%	2.06	2.75 BetVictor	36.4%	+12.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.9%	1.14	1.16 Betano	86.2%	+1.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.1%	8.29	5.00 BetVictor	20.0%	-7.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	69.7%	1.44	1.55 BetVictor	64.5%	+5.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	30.3%	3.30	2.45 BetVictor	40.8%	-10.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	48.4%	2.06	2.30 BetVictor	43.5%	+5.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	51.6%	1.94	1.57 BetVictor	63.7%	-12.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	69.2%	1.45	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	30.8%	3.24	2.60 BetVictor	38.5%	-7.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Hanworth Villa favoured against Leatherhead

Our model makes Leatherhead 29% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 22% and Hanworth Villa at 49%. The goal projection is 1.56 for Leatherhead against 2.04 for Hanworth Villa — a clear edge to Hanworth Villa on expected output. A combined 3.60 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 1-2 9%; 2-2 7%; 2-1 7%; 1-3 6%

This season

Season records for Leatherhead and Hanworth Villa
Leatherhead		Hanworth Villa
5	Played	3
3-1-1	W-D-L	2-0-1
2.00	Pts / game	2.00
2.00	Goals for / game	3.33
1.60	Goals against / game	0.67
60%	Over 2.5	67%
40%	BTTS	33%
60%	Clean sheets	33%
0%	Failed to score	33%
2-1-0	Home record	1-0-0
1-0-1	Away record	1-0-1
L1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Leatherhead · Hanworth Villa

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Cards	—
—	Fouls	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	—

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Cards	—
—	Fouls	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	—

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Leatherhead	Metric	Hanworth Villa
1.80	Goals scored	3.40 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
	Shots on target
	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners
	Possession %
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Leatherhead wins: 1
Draws: 0
Hanworth Villa wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Leatherhead v Hanworth Villa1–02026-10-03