Lask Linz v Red Bull Salzburg

3rd1–32nd

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Lask Linz		Red Bull Salzburg
17	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	7
4	Corners	1
11	Fouls	13
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
510	Passes	481
52%	Possession %	48%
1.33	xG	2.48

Over 1.5: 86%
Over 2.5: 67%
Over 3.5: 45%
Both score: 67%

Model pick: Lask Linz 45%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.87 – 1.56

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Lask Linz -0.5

2.15Bet365 · fair 1.94 · qualifies at 2.00+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Lask Linz -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.15 with Bet365 — Lask Linz must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 56%; we judge it at 52%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.94. The offered 2.15 implies only 47%, so the price is 11.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Lask Linz 1.87, Red Bull Salzburg 1.56.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Lask Linz	44.9%	2.23	2.20 Betano	45.5%	-0.6
Match result	Draw	23.2%	4.31	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	-1.8
Match result	Red Bull Salzburg	31.9%	3.13	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-1.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.1%	1.16	1.13 Betano	88.5%	-2.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	13.9%	7.19	7.00 Betfair	14.3%	-0.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	66.5%	1.50	1.47 Betano	68.0%	-1.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	33.5%	2.99	3.00 Betfair	33.3%	+0.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	44.8%	2.23	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-2.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	55.2%	1.81	1.80 Betfair	55.6%	-0.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	67.2%	1.49	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-2.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	32.8%	3.05	3.20 Betfair	31.3%	+1.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lask Linz favoured against Red Bull Salzburg

Our model makes Lask Linz 45% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 23% and Red Bull Salzburg at 32%. The goal projection is 1.87 for Lask Linz against 1.56 for Red Bull Salzburg — a clear edge to Lask Linz on expected output. A combined 3.43 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 7%; 2-2 7%; 2-0 6%

This season

Season records for Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg
Lask Linz		Red Bull Salzburg
12	Played	12
8-1-3	W-D-L	9-3-0
2.08	Pts / game	2.50
2.50	Goals for / game	2.75
1.25	Goals against / game	0.75
83%	Over 2.5	67%
58%	BTTS	58%
33%	Clean sheets	42%
8%	Failed to score	8%
4-0-2	Home record	6-0-0
4-1-1	Away record	3-3-0
W2	Streak	W4

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lask Linz · Red Bull Salzburg

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.7	Shots	16.8
5.3	Shots on target	6.8
5.8	Corners	5.5
1.33	Cards	1.50
9.8	Fouls	11.5
53	Possession %	59
2.09	xG	2.32
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.0	Shots	14.7
3.8	Shots on target	3.7
2.5	Corners	3.8
2.33	Cards	1.83
12.7	Fouls	12.2
47	Possession %	41
1.27	xG	1.06
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lask Linz	Metric	Red Bull Salzburg
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
2.40	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
2.12 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.23
	Big chances
5.25 (better)	Shots on target	5.00
15.25 (better)	Total shots	13.25
	Touches in opp. box
7.50 (better)	Corners	4.00
48.5	Possession %	56.3 (better)
421	Passes	479 (better)
	Tackles
7.25 (better)	Fouls	14.00
3.75	Offsides	1.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
0.75 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lask Linz wins: 2
Draws: 0
Red Bull Salzburg wins: 3
Goals / game: 4.20
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 80%

Lask Linz v Red Bull Salzburg1–32026-10-25
Lask Linz v Red Bull Salzburg2–12026-05-10
Red Bull Salzburg v Lask Linz2–32026-04-10
Lask Linz v Red Bull Salzburg1–52026-02-22
Red Bull Salzburg v Lask Linz3–02025-08-23

Austrian Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rapid Vienna	12	11	0	1	+30	33	Rapid Vienna won 5 of the last 5
2	Red Bull Salzburg	12	9	3	0	+24	30	Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of the last 5
3	Lask Linz	12	8	1	3	+15	25	Lask Linz won 3 of the last 5
4	TSV Hartberg	12	6	2	4	+4	20	TSV Hartberg won 4 of the last 5
5	Sturm Graz	12	5	4	3	+5	19	Sturm Graz won 2 of the last 5
6	Ried	12	4	4	4	-1	16	Ried won 2 of the last 5
7	WSG Wattens	12	3	4	5	-3	13	WSG Wattens won 1 of the last 5
8	Austria Lustenau	12	3	2	7	-15	11	Austria Lustenau won 1 of the last 5
9	SCR Altach	12	3	1	8	-9	10	SCR Altach won 2 of the last 5
10	Grazer AK	12	2	4	6	-20	10	Grazer AK won 0 of the last 5
11	Austria Vienna	12	2	2	8	-12	8	Austria Vienna won 0 of the last 5
12	Wolfsberger AC	12	1	3	8	-18	6	Wolfsberger AC won 0 of the last 5