Las Palmas v Valladolid

10th2–212th

16:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Las Palmas		Valladolid
12	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	7
3	Corners	6
12	Fouls	25
3	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	0
478	Passes	328
59%	Possession %	41%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Las Palmas 52%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.65 – 1.01

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

Las Palmas

2.27Betano · fair 1.94 · qualifies at 2.09+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Las Palmas to win at 2.27 with Betano.

Our model puts the chance at 52%, which is a fair price of 1.94. The offered 2.27 implies only 44%, so the price is 17.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Las Palmas 1.65, Valladolid 1.01.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Las Palmas	51.6%	1.94	2.35 Bet365	42.6%	+9.0
Match result	Draw	25.9%	3.86	3.30 Betfair	30.3%	-4.4
Match result	Valladolid	22.5%	4.45	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-6.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.1%	1.33	1.35 Betano	74.1%	+1.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.9%	4.01	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	-4.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.6%	2.02	2.08 Bet365	48.1%	+1.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.4%	1.98	1.83 Betano	54.6%	-4.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.7%	3.62	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	+1.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.3%	1.38	1.31 Betano	76.3%	-4.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.0%	1.92	1.85 William Hill	54.1%	-2.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.0%	2.08	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-1.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Las Palmas favoured against Valladolid

Our model makes Las Palmas 52% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 26% and Valladolid at 22%. The goal projection is 1.65 for Las Palmas against 1.01 for Valladolid — a substantial edge to Las Palmas on expected output. A combined 2.66 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 11%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 10%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Las Palmas and Valladolid
Las Palmas		Valladolid
13	Played	13
6-2-5	W-D-L	5-3-5
1.54	Pts / game	1.38
1.46	Goals for / game	1.69
1.62	Goals against / game	1.54
62%	Over 2.5	62%
54%	BTTS	62%
38%	Clean sheets	15%
15%	Failed to score	23%
3-2-2	Home record	4-0-2
3-0-3	Away record	1-3-3
W3	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Las Palmas · Valladolid

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.0	Shots	14.9
3.6	Shots on target	7.0
4.3	Corners	5.9
3.64	Cards	3.50
12.0	Fouls	14.9
51	Possession %	48
0.86	xG	1.97
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.8	Shots	14.4
5.0	Shots on target	5.1
5.5	Corners	4.3
2.63	Cards	3.63
16.5	Fouls	14.0
49	Possession %	52
1.22	xG	1.77
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Las Palmas	Metric	Valladolid
1.20	Goals scored	1.20
2.00	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.13 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.97
	Big chances
3.80	Shots on target	4.60 (better)
10.40	Total shots	11.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.60 (better)	Corners	3.00
53.2 (better)	Possession %	47.4
477 (better)	Passes	382
	Tackles
12.60 (better)	Fouls	13.80
1.20 (better)	Offsides	2.20
	Throw-ins
2.60 (better)	Yellow cards	3.20
1.00	Red cards	0.67 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Las Palmas wins: 2
Draws: 1
Valladolid wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Las Palmas v Valladolid2–22026-10-04
Las Palmas v Valladolid2–12026-05-03
Valladolid v Las Palmas0–12025-11-14

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5