Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5WWWLL10th1–0Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5DWLLL17th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Las Palmas
Real Sociedad II
13
Shots
12
4
Shots on target
3
7
Corners
6
12
Fouls
14
3
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
4
Offsides
3
481
Passes
390
55%
Possession %
45%
1.09
xG
0.92
50%
24%
26%
1 · Las PalmasXReal Sociedad II · 2
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
38%
Both score
61%
Model pick
Las Palmas 50%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.27
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Las Palmas
50.3%
1.99
2.25 Bet365
44.4%
+5.8
Match result
Draw
23.9%
4.19
3.55 Betano
28.2%
-4.3
Match result
Real Sociedad II
25.8%
3.87
4.10 BetVictor
24.4%
+1.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
82.1%
1.22
1.25 Betano
80.0%
+2.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
17.9%
5.57
4.33 Betfair
23.1%
-5.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
59.9%
1.67
1.80 Betano
55.6%
+4.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
40.1%
2.49
2.12 Betano
47.2%
-7.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
37.5%
2.67
2.92 Betano
34.2%
+3.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
62.5%
1.60
1.45 Betano
69.0%
-6.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
60.8%
1.64
1.62 William Hill
61.7%
-0.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
39.2%
2.55
2.32 Betano
43.1%
-3.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Las Palmas favoured against Real Sociedad II
Our model makes Las Palmas 50% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 24% and Real Sociedad II at 26%. The goal projection is 1.84 for Las Palmas against 1.27 for Real Sociedad II — a substantial edge to Las Palmas on expected output. A combined 3.10 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 10%
1-0 8%
2-0 8%
1-2 7%
This season
Season records for Las Palmas and Real Sociedad II
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Las Palmas
Metric
Real Sociedad II
1.40
Goals scored
1.60 (better)
2.00 (better)
Goals conceded
2.20
1.33
Expected goals (xG)
1.51 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.80 (better)
Shots on target
3.75
12.00
Total shots
13.75 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.80 (better)
Corners
4.50
51.0 (better)
Possession %
42.0
443 (better)
Passes
350
—
Tackles
—
13.00 (better)
Fouls
17.25
1.40
Offsides
0.75 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.80 (better)
Yellow cards
3.25
0.25 (better)
Red cards
0.67
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Las Palmas v 
Real Sociedad II