Predicted Edge

Laredo v Burgos

Laredo won 0 of the last 12–4Burgos won 3 of the last 53rd

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Laredo Burgos
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Fouls—
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
—Offsides—
—Passes—
—Possession %—
—xG—
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
21%
Both score
48%
Model pick
Burgos 42%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.30

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultLaredo29.1%3.447.00 Bet36514.3%+14.8
Match resultDraw29.1%3.434.40 Dafabet22.7%+6.4
Match resultBurgos41.8%2.391.60 Bet36562.5%-20.7
Total goalsOver 1.568.3%1.461.28 BetVictor78.1%-9.8
Total goalsUnder 1.531.7%3.163.80 Betfair26.3%+5.3
Total goalsOver 2.541.3%2.421.87 Betfair53.5%-12.2
Total goalsUnder 2.558.7%1.701.95 Bet36551.3%+7.4
Total goalsOver 3.520.8%4.823.25 Bet36530.8%-10.0
Total goalsUnder 3.579.2%1.261.36 Bet36573.5%+5.7
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes47.6%2.101.95 Bet36551.3%-3.7
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No52.4%1.911.87 Betfair53.5%-1.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Burgos favoured against Laredo

Our model makes Laredo 29% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 29% and Burgos at 42%. The goal projection is 1.04 for Laredo against 1.30 for Burgos — a clear edge to Burgos on expected output. A combined 2.33 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 14%
0-1 12%
0-0 10%
1-0 9%
1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Laredo and Burgos
Laredo Burgos
1Played13
0-0-1W-D-L7-3-3
0.00Pts / game1.85
2.00Goals for / game1.46
4.00Goals against / game1.08
100%Over 2.554%
100%BTTS62%
0%Clean sheets23%
0%Failed to score23%
0-0-1Home record5-2-1
0-0-0Away record2-1-2
L1StreakW1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Laredo · Burgos

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots12.6
—Shots on target4.9
—Corners4.6
5.00Cards2.56
—Fouls13.4
—Possession %46
—xG1.53
1 matchessample9 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots11.9
—Shots on target4.1
—Corners4.3
3.00Cards2.68
—Fouls13.9
—Possession %54
—xG0.99
1 matchessample9 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
LaredoMetricBurgos
3.00 (better)Goals scored1.00
0.40 (better)Goals conceded0.80
Expected goals (xG)1.12
Big chances
Shots on target4.20
Total shots12.00
Touches in opp. box
Corners4.60
Possession %48.6
Passes389
Tackles
Fouls14.00
Offsides3.50
Throw-ins
Yellow cards3.00
Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Laredo wins
0
Draws
0
Burgos wins
1
Goals / game
6.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%