Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5WWDDL12th2–0Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5LLLLD15th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Kyoto Sanga
Shimizu S-pulse
8
Shots
7
7
Shots on target
0
6
Corners
6
10
Fouls
9
3
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
0
376
Passes
400
47%
Possession %
53%
1.24
xG
0.57
35%
27%
38%
1 · Kyoto SangaXShimizu S-pulse · 2
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
29%
Both score
56%
Model pick
Shimizu S-pulse 38%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.39
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Kyoto Sanga
35.1%
2.85
2.67 Betano
37.5%
-2.4
Match result
Draw
26.9%
3.72
3.40 BetVictor
29.4%
-2.5
Match result
Shimizu S-pulse
38.0%
2.63
2.90 Dafabet
34.5%
+3.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
76.1%
1.31
1.33 Bet365
75.2%
+0.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
23.9%
4.19
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
-5.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
51.1%
1.96
2.05 Betano
48.8%
+2.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
48.9%
2.05
1.82 Betano
54.9%
-6.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
29.0%
3.44
3.75 Bet365
26.7%
+2.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
71.0%
1.41
1.30 Betano
76.9%
-6.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
55.8%
1.79
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
+0.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
44.2%
2.27
2.05 Betano
48.8%
-4.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Kyoto Sanga v Shimizu S-pulse: too close to call
Our model makes Kyoto Sanga 35% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Shimizu S-pulse at 38%. The goal projection is 1.33 for Kyoto Sanga against 1.39 for Shimizu S-pulse — almost nothing to Shimizu S-pulse on expected output. A combined 2.72 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
0-1 9%
1-2 8%
1-0 8%
2-1 8%
This season
Season records for Kyoto Sanga and Shimizu S-pulse
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kyoto Sanga
Metric
Shimizu S-pulse
0.60
Goals scored
1.40 (better)
1.20 (better)
Goals conceded
2.20
0.99 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.71
—
Big chances *
—
3.50
Shots on target
3.67 (better)
10.00 (better)
Total shots
9.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.25 (better)
Corners
4.00
37.3 (better)
Possession %
35.7
328 (better)
Passes
299
—
Tackles
—
16.25
Fouls
13.00 (better)
3.25
Offsides
0.67 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00
Yellow cards
1.00
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.33
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Kyoto Sanga v 
Shimizu S-pulse