Kristiansund BK v 
Valerenga
Match statistics
| Kristiansund BK | Valerenga | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 282 | Passes | 647 |
| 56% | Possession % | 44% |
| 1.58 | xG | 0.97 |
- Over 1.5
- 86%
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Over 3.5
- 45%
- Both score
- 67%
- Model pick
- Valerenga 48%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.49 – 1.97
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Valerenga +0.25
Why this price?
Back Valerenga +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.76 with BetVictor — Valerenga starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 68% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 60%; we judge it at 63%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.58. The offered 1.76 implies only 57%, so the price is 11.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Kristiansund BK 1.49, Valerenga 1.97.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Kristiansund BK | 28.8% | 3.47 | 3.05 Betano | 32.8% | -4.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 22.7% | 4.40 | 4.10 Bet365 | 24.4% | -1.7 |
| Match result | Valerenga | 48.5% | 2.06 | 2.60 William Hill | 38.5% | +10.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 86.4% | 1.16 | 1.12 Betano | 89.3% | -2.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 13.6% | 7.38 | 7.00 Bet365 | 14.3% | -0.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | 1.40 Bet365 | 71.4% | -4.3 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 32.8% | 3.05 | 3.20 Betfair | 31.3% | +1.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | 2.00 Betfair | 50.0% | -4.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 54.5% | 1.83 | 1.85 Betfair | 54.1% | +0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 67.1% | 1.49 | 1.40 Bet365 | 71.4% | -4.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 32.9% | 3.04 | 3.20 BetVictor | 31.3% | +1.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Valerenga favoured against Kristiansund BK
Our model makes Kristiansund BK 29% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 23% and Valerenga at 48%. The goal projection is 1.49 for Kristiansund BK against 1.97 for Valerenga — a clear edge to Valerenga on expected output. A combined 3.46 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-1 7%
- 2-2 7%
- 0-2 6%
This season
| Kristiansund BK | Valerenga | |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Played | 26 |
| 7-5-14 | W-D-L | 9-5-12 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 1.23 |
| 1.15 | Goals for / game | 1.65 |
| 1.96 | Goals against / game | 1.81 |
| 62% | Over 2.5 | 58% |
| 62% | BTTS | 54% |
| 15% | Clean sheets | 15% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 31% |
| 5-3-5 | Home record | 6-2-5 |
| 2-2-9 | Away record | 3-3-7 |
| W2 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kristiansund BK · Valerenga
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.4 | Shots | 17.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.4 | Shots on target | 5.8 |
| 2.8 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 2.40 | Cards | 1.83 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 10.8 |
| 42 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.75 | xG | 1.79 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 18.4 | Shots | 15.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 5.6 | Corners | 6.2 |
| 1.80 | Cards | 1.77 |
| 13.2 | Fouls | 8.7 |
| 58 | Possession % | 52 |
| 2.53 | xG | 1.70 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Kristiansund BK | Metric | Valerenga |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 1.60 (better) |
| 2.80 | Goals conceded | 1.40 (better) |
| 1.59 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 | Shots on target | 6.25 (better) |
| 14.33 | Total shots | 18.75 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 2.67 | Corners | 7.00 (better) |
| 41.7 | Possession % | 43.3 (better) |
| 371 | Passes | 419 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.33 | Fouls | 10.50 (better) |
| 0.67 (better) | Offsides | 3.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.67 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.75 |
| 1.00 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Kristiansund BK wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Valerenga wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.67
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 33%
- Kristiansund BK v Valerenga1–02026-11-09
- Valerenga v Kristiansund BK3–12026-05-29
- Valerenga v Kristiansund BK3–02025-11-22
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 26 | 20 | 2 | 4 | +42 | 62 | Viking won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 26 | 20 | 2 | 4 | +40 | 62 | Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Rosenborg | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | +21 | 46 | Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Lillestrom | 26 | 14 | 3 | 9 | +4 | 45 | Lillestrom won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Molde | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | +20 | 44 | Molde won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Tromso | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | +3 | 40 | Tromso won 0 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Brann | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | +3 | 33 | Brann won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Valerenga | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -4 | 32 | Valerenga won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -10 | 31 | Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -13 | 31 | KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Ham-Kam | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -15 | 30 | Ham-Kam won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Fredrikstad | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -15 | 30 | Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Sandefjord | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -8 | 28 | Sandefjord won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | -21 | 26 | Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Aalesund | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -15 | 24 | Aalesund won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Start | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | -32 | 19 | Start won 1 of the last 5 |