Predicted Edge

Kristiansund BK v KFUM Oslo

Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 514th2–2KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 510th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Kristiansund BK KFUM Oslo
25Shots15
9Shots on target3
4Corners3
15Fouls14
2Yellow cards2
1Red cards0
0Offsides1
381Passes503
43%Possession %57%
3.29xG2.11
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
31%
Both score
57%
Model pick
KFUM Oslo 42%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.53

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

Kristiansund BK -0.75

2.56Marathonbet · fair 2.29 · qualifies at 2.36+ · 1.89u
Why this price?

Back Kristiansund BK -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 2.56 with Marathonbet — Kristiansund BK must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 25% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 56%; we judge it at 44%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.29. The offered 2.56 implies only 39%, so the price is 11.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.89 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Kristiansund BK 1.29, KFUM Oslo 1.53.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultKristiansund BK31.4%3.182.40 Betano41.7%-10.2
Match resultDraw26.1%3.833.60 Bet36527.8%-1.7
Match resultKFUM Oslo42.5%2.352.95 Dafabet33.9%+8.6
Total goalsOver 1.577.9%1.281.28 Bet36578.1%-0.3
Total goalsUnder 1.522.1%4.524.00 Bet36525.0%-2.9
Total goalsOver 2.553.6%1.861.87 Betfair53.5%+0.1
Total goalsUnder 2.546.4%2.152.10 Betano47.6%-1.2
Total goalsOver 3.531.3%3.193.25 Bet36530.8%+0.6
Total goalsUnder 3.568.7%1.461.40 Bet36571.4%-2.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes57.4%1.741.67 Bet36559.9%-2.5
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No42.6%2.352.30 Betfair43.5%-0.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

KFUM Oslo favoured against Kristiansund BK

Our model makes Kristiansund BK 31% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 26% and KFUM Oslo at 42%. The goal projection is 1.29 for Kristiansund BK against 1.53 for KFUM Oslo — a slight edge to KFUM Oslo on expected output. A combined 2.82 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
1-2 9%
0-1 9%
2-1 8%
1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Kristiansund BK and KFUM Oslo
Kristiansund BK KFUM Oslo
26Played26
7-5-14W-D-L8-7-11
1.00Pts / game1.19
1.15Goals for / game1.27
1.96Goals against / game1.77
62%Over 2.562%
62%BTTS65%
15%Clean sheets19%
27%Failed to score19%
5-3-5Home record6-3-4
2-2-9Away record2-4-7
W2StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kristiansund BK · KFUM Oslo

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.4Shots12.0
5.4Shots on target3.8
2.8Corners3.4
2.40Cards1.60
11.4Fouls9.2
42Possession %45
1.75xG1.45
5 matchessample5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.4Shots20.8
5.6Shots on target6.0
5.6Corners6.2
1.80Cards2.40
13.2Fouls12.0
58Possession %55
2.53xG2.23
5 matchessample5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kristiansund BKMetricKFUM Oslo
1.00Goals scored1.80 (better)
2.80Goals conceded1.00 (better)
0.80Expected goals (xG)1.50 (better)
Big chances
4.33 (better)Shots on target3.75
11.33 (better)Total shots9.50
Touches in opp. box
2.67Corners4.00 (better)
41.3 (better)Possession %37.0
358 (better)Passes343
Tackles
10.67Fouls8.75 (better)
1.67 (better)Offsides2.33
Throw-ins
1.33Yellow cards0.75 (better)
0.00 (better)Red cards0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Kristiansund BK wins
0
Draws
2
KFUM Oslo wins
2
Goals / game
3.50
Over 2.5
75%
Both score
75%
Eliteserien table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Viking262024+4262Viking won 4 of the last 5
2Bodo/Glimt262024+4062Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 5
3Rosenborg261448+2146Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5
4Lillestrom261439+445Lillestrom won 4 of the last 5
5Molde261358+2044Molde won 2 of the last 5
6Tromso261178+340Tromso won 0 of the last 5
7Brann2610313+333Brann won 1 of the last 5
8Valerenga269512-432Valerenga won 3 of the last 5
9Sarpsborg 08 FF268711-1031Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5
10KFUM Oslo268711-1331KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 5
11Ham-Kam268612-1530Ham-Kam won 2 of the last 5
12Fredrikstad268612-1530Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5
13Sandefjord267712-828Sandefjord won 1 of the last 5
14Kristiansund BK267514-2126Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5
15Aalesund265912-1524Aalesund won 1 of the last 5
16Start265417-3219Start won 1 of the last 5