Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5WWDLL14th1–4Aalesund won 1 of the last 5LLLWL15th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Kristiansund BK
Aalesund
15
Shots
16
3
Shots on target
8
4
Corners
8
9
Fouls
16
2
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
2
478
Passes
315
59%
Possession %
41%
1.37
xG
1.90
36%
24%
40%
1 · Kristiansund BKXAalesund · 2
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
45%
Both score
67%
Model pick
Aalesund 40%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.75
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Kristiansund BK
36.3%
2.75
2.43 Dafabet
41.2%
-4.8
Match result
Draw
23.5%
4.25
3.80 Betfair
26.3%
-2.8
Match result
Aalesund
40.1%
2.49
2.70 Dafabet
37.0%
+3.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
86.0%
1.16
1.17 Betano
85.5%
+0.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
14.0%
7.13
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
-4.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
66.3%
1.51
1.55 Betano
64.5%
+1.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
33.7%
2.97
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
-5.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
44.5%
2.25
—
—
—
Total goals
Under 3.5
55.5%
1.80
1.60 Betano
62.5%
-7.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
67.5%
1.48
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
+0.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
32.5%
3.08
2.70 Betfair
37.0%
-4.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Kristiansund BK v Aalesund: too close to call
Our model makes Kristiansund BK 36% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 24% and Aalesund at 40%. The goal projection is 1.66 for Kristiansund BK against 1.75 for Aalesund — almost nothing to Aalesund on expected output. A combined 3.42 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kristiansund BK
Metric
Aalesund
1.20
Goals scored
2.00 (better)
3.00
Goals conceded
1.60 (better)
0.73
Expected goals (xG)
1.65 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.67
Shots on target
6.25 (better)
12.00
Total shots
16.25 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.33
Corners
5.00 (better)
42.0
Possession %
45.8 (better)
370
Passes
415 (better)
—
Tackles
—
11.67 (better)
Fouls
12.50
1.00
Offsides
0.67 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00 (better)
Yellow cards
3.75
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Kristiansund BK v 
Aalesund