Kozakken Boys v Utrecht

0–114th

17:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Kozakken Boys		Utrecht
18	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	3
7	Corners	8
13	Fouls	11
—	Yellow cards	—
—	Red cards	—
2	Offsides	0
386	Passes	410
49%	Possession %	51%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 93%
Over 2.5: 81%
Over 3.5: 63%
Both score: 78%

Model pick: Kozakken Boys 47%
Likely score: 2-1 7%
Expected goals: 2.35 – 1.98

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Kozakken Boys	46.8%	2.14	7.80 Dafabet	12.8%	+34.0
Match result	Draw	20.2%	4.95	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	+2.0
Match result	Utrecht	33.0%	3.03	1.41 Dafabet	70.9%	-37.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	93.2%	1.07	1.13 Betano	88.5%	+4.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	6.8%	14.79	6.50 Bet365	15.4%	-8.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	80.5%	1.24	1.42 Betano	70.4%	+10.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	19.5%	5.14	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	-15.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	62.7%	1.60	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	+13.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	37.3%	2.68	1.85 Betano	54.1%	-16.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	78.2%	1.28	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+16.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	21.8%	4.58	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	-18.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Kozakken Boys favoured against Utrecht

Our model makes Kozakken Boys 47% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 20% and Utrecht at 33%. The goal projection is 2.35 for Kozakken Boys against 1.98 for Utrecht — a clear edge to Kozakken Boys on expected output. A combined 4.32 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 81% and both teams to score at 78%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 7%; 2-2 7%; 1-1 6%; 1-2 6%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Kozakken Boys and Utrecht
Kozakken Boys		Utrecht
2	Played	12
1-0-1	W-D-L	3-3-6
1.50	Pts / game	1.00
2.50	Goals for / game	1.75
1.00	Goals against / game	2.83
50%	Over 2.5	92%
50%	BTTS	92%
0%	Clean sheets	0%
50%	Failed to score	8%
0-0-1	Home record	1-2-3
1-0-0	Away record	2-1-3
L1	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kozakken Boys · Utrecht

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
18.0	Shots	17.0
3.0	Shots on target	4.8
7.0	Corners	6.3
—	Cards	2.00
13.0	Fouls	14.2
49	Possession %	53
—	xG	1.58
1 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.0	Shots	15.3
3.0	Shots on target	4.8
8.0	Corners	4.7
—	Cards	1.00
11.0	Fouls	11.0
51	Possession %	47
—	xG	1.55
1 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kozakken Boys	Metric	Utrecht
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	2.00
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
	Expected goals (xG)	1.40
	Big chances
	Shots on target	5.00
	Total shots	15.40
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners	4.60
	Possession %	46.8
	Passes	433
	Tackles
	Fouls	14.60
	Offsides	0.67
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards	1.60
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Kozakken Boys wins: 0
Draws: 0
Utrecht wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Kozakken Boys v Utrecht0–12026-10-29