Kortrijk v KV Mechelen

18th1–310th

19:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Kortrijk		KV Mechelen
11	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	8
2	Corners	4
18	Fouls	12
4	Yellow cards	2
1	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
331	Passes	530
39%	Possession %	61%
1.06	xG	1.32

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: KV Mechelen 50%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.10 – 1.66

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Kortrijk	24.5%	4.08	2.65 Dafabet	37.7%	-13.2
Match result	Draw	25.5%	3.92	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-2.3
Match result	KV Mechelen	50.0%	2.00	3.00 Dafabet	33.3%	+16.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.8%	1.30	1.27 Betano	78.7%	-2.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.2%	4.30	4.10 BetVictor	24.4%	-1.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.1%	1.92	1.85 Bet365	54.1%	-2.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.9%	2.09	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	+0.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.9%	3.34	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-2.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.1%	1.43	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	+0.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.5%	1.83	1.70 William Hill	58.8%	-4.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.5%	2.20	2.25 BetVictor	44.4%	+1.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

KV Mechelen favoured against Kortrijk

Our model makes Kortrijk 24% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 25% and KV Mechelen at 50%. The goal projection is 1.10 for Kortrijk against 1.66 for KV Mechelen — a substantial edge to KV Mechelen on expected output. A combined 2.76 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-2 9%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Kortrijk and KV Mechelen
Kortrijk		KV Mechelen
10	Played	10
1-1-8	W-D-L	3-3-4
0.40	Pts / game	1.20
0.40	Goals for / game	1.30
2.20	Goals against / game	1.80
60%	Over 2.5	50%
30%	BTTS	40%
10%	Clean sheets	20%
60%	Failed to score	50%
1-0-4	Home record	2-1-2
0-1-4	Away record	1-2-2
L1	Streak	W3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kortrijk · KV Mechelen

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.3	Shots	10.0
3.3	Shots on target	4.7
3.0	Corners	3.0
4.17	Cards	2.00
16.0	Fouls	12.3
40	Possession %	46
1.10	xG	0.79
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.0	Shots	16.0
5.3	Shots on target	4.7
6.0	Corners	6.0
2.08	Cards	5.67
9.5	Fouls	16.3
60	Possession %	54
1.50	xG	1.38
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kortrijk	Metric	KV Mechelen
0.60	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
2.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
1.07 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.97
	Big chances
2.50	Shots on target	3.00 (better)
11.75 (better)	Total shots	11.50
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	5.75 (better)
48.0 (better)	Possession %	43.3
425 (better)	Passes	354
	Tackles
12.50 (better)	Fouls	14.00
2.00 (better)	Offsides	2.50
	Throw-ins
2.75	Yellow cards	2.50 (better)
1.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Kortrijk wins: 0
Draws: 0
KV Mechelen wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Kortrijk v KV Mechelen1–32026-11-04

Belgian Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Club Brugge KV	10	9	0	1	+18	27	Club Brugge KV won 5 of the last 5
2	Charleroi	11	9	0	2	+13	27	Charleroi won 4 of the last 5
3	Union St. Gilloise	10	8	2	0	+22	26	Union St. Gilloise won 4 of the last 5
4	Gent	10	8	1	1	+13	25	Gent won 3 of the last 5
5	Anderlecht	10	6	1	3	+2	19	Anderlecht won 4 of the last 5
6	Genk	10	4	3	3	+4	15	Genk won 2 of the last 5
7	Standard Liege	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Standard Liege won 1 of the last 5
8	Lommel United	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Lommel United won 2 of the last 5
9	KVC Westerlo	11	4	2	5	-4	14	KVC Westerlo won 2 of the last 5
10	KV Mechelen	10	3	3	4	-5	12	KV Mechelen won 3 of the last 5
11	Zulte Waregem	10	3	2	5	-4	11	Zulte Waregem won 0 of the last 5
12	Antwerp	10	3	1	6	-6	10	Antwerp won 1 of the last 5
13	SK Beveren	11	3	1	7	-10	10	SK Beveren won 0 of the last 5
14	OH Leuven	10	2	3	5	-7	9	OH Leuven won 2 of the last 5
15	St. Truiden	10	2	2	6	-3	8	St. Truiden won 0 of the last 5
16	RAAL La Louvière	10	2	1	7	-10	7	RAAL La Louvière won 2 of the last 5
17	Cercle Brugge	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Cercle Brugge won 1 of the last 5
18	Kortrijk	10	1	1	8	-18	4	Kortrijk won 1 of the last 5