Korona Kielce v Radomiak Radom

11th0–214th

11:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Korona Kielce		Radomiak Radom
37	Shots	12
11	Shots on target	3
20	Corners	3
12	Fouls	15
4	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	1
1	Offsides	1
373	Passes	341
53%	Possession %	47%
2.71	xG	1.15

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Korona Kielce 51%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.76 – 1.17

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Korona Kielce	50.8%	1.97	1.78 Betano	56.2%	-5.4
Match result	Draw	24.5%	4.07	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	-1.1
Match result	Radomiak Radom	24.6%	4.06	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+2.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.6%	1.26	1.23 Betano	81.3%	-1.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.4%	4.89	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	-2.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.1%	1.78	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-2.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.9%	2.28	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-2.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	33.7%	2.97	2.80 Betano	35.7%	-2.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.3%	1.51	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-2.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.6%	1.74	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-1.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.4%	2.36	2.15 BetVictor	46.5%	-4.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Korona Kielce favoured against Radomiak Radom

Our model makes Korona Kielce 51% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 25% and Radomiak Radom at 25%. The goal projection is 1.76 for Korona Kielce against 1.17 for Radomiak Radom — a substantial edge to Korona Kielce on expected output. A combined 2.93 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 6%

This season

Season records for Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom
Korona Kielce		Radomiak Radom
14	Played	14
5-3-6	W-D-L	4-2-8
1.29	Pts / game	1.00
1.00	Goals for / game	1.21
1.50	Goals against / game	2.07
29%	Over 2.5	64%
50%	BTTS	57%
14%	Clean sheets	21%
36%	Failed to score	36%
2-3-2	Home record	3-1-3
3-0-4	Away record	1-1-5
L2	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Korona Kielce · Radomiak Radom

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
20.4	Shots	14.0
6.0	Shots on target	4.0
10.8	Corners	5.7
2.00	Cards	2.07
10.6	Fouls	11.2
53	Possession %	48
1.35	xG	1.42
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.4	Shots	18.5
2.8	Shots on target	6.8
3.4	Corners	7.7
3.00	Cards	2.67
17.4	Fouls	13.7
47	Possession %	52
1.48	xG	2.19
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Korona Kielce	Metric	Radomiak Radom
0.80	Goals scored	1.50 (better)
3.00	Goals conceded	2.50 (better)
1.02	Expected goals (xG)	1.31 (better)
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	2.67
16.00 (better)	Total shots	12.67
	Touches in opp. box
7.67 (better)	Corners	5.33
46.3	Possession %	48.7 (better)
372	Passes	420 (better)
	Tackles
9.67 (better)	Fouls	10.67
3.00	Offsides	0.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.67	Yellow cards	1.33 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Korona Kielce wins: 2
Draws: 0
Radomiak Radom wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 0%

Korona Kielce v Radomiak Radom0–22026-11-07
Radomiak Radom v Korona Kielce0–22026-02-13
Korona Kielce v Radomiak Radom3–02025-08-08

Ekstraklasa table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	+21	32	Lech Poznan won 4 of the last 5
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	+11	31	Gornik Zabrze won 2 of the last 5
3	Legia Warszawa	14	6	6	2	+10	24	Legia Warszawa won 1 of the last 5
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Pogon Szczecin won 3 of the last 5
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	+3	24	Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	+1	23	Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	+5	21	GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5
9	Jagiellonia	13	7	0	6	0	21	Jagiellonia won 3 of the last 5
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	-7	18	Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	-7	15	Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5
13	Widzew Łódź	14	2	8	4	+1	14	Widzew Łódź won 1 of the last 5
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	-12	14	Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	-7	12	Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5
16	Raków Częstochowa	14	4	0	10	-8	12	Raków Częstochowa won 3 of the last 5
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	-8	10	Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5
18	Wieczysta Kraków	14	2	2	10	-10	8	Wieczysta Kraków won 0 of the last 5