Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5LLWLL11th1–0GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5LWLLW8th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Korona Kielce
GKS Katowice
16
Shots
8
7
Shots on target
2
9
Corners
4
10
Fouls
19
2
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
0
6
Offsides
0
367
Passes
431
47%
Possession %
53%
1.10
xG
1.89
33%
26%
41%
1 · Korona KielceXGKS Katowice · 2
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
31%
Both score
57%
Model pick
GKS Katowice 41%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.49
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Korona Kielce
32.5%
3.08
2.17 Dafabet
46.1%
-13.6
Match result
Draw
26.4%
3.79
3.70 Betfair
27.0%
-0.7
Match result
GKS Katowice
41.1%
2.43
3.20 Betano
31.3%
+9.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
77.4%
1.29
1.21 Betano
82.6%
-5.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
22.6%
4.42
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
+0.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
52.9%
1.89
1.65 Betano
60.6%
-7.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
47.1%
2.12
2.30 Betfair
43.5%
+3.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
30.7%
3.26
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-7.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
69.3%
1.44
1.52 Betano
65.8%
+3.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
57.0%
1.75
1.53 William Hill
65.4%
-8.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
43.0%
2.33
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
+2.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
GKS Katowice favoured against Korona Kielce
Our model makes Korona Kielce 33% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 26% and GKS Katowice at 41%. The goal projection is 1.30 for Korona Kielce against 1.49 for GKS Katowice — a slight edge to GKS Katowice on expected output. A combined 2.79 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Korona Kielce
Metric
GKS Katowice
1.20
Goals scored
2.20 (better)
2.40
Goals conceded
1.40 (better)
1.72 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.59
—
Big chances *
—
5.00 (better)
Shots on target
4.50
14.50
Total shots
15.50 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.75 (better)
Corners
3.00
50.3
Possession %
51.5 (better)
430 (better)
Passes
427
—
Tackles
—
9.25 (better)
Fouls
12.00
2.25
Offsides
1.75 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00
Yellow cards
1.00
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Korona Kielce v 
GKS Katowice