Predicted Edge

Kloetinge v Cambuur

Kloetinge won 2 of the last 30–2Cambuur won 3 of the last 510th
Over 1.5
96%
Over 2.5
87%
Over 3.5
73%
Both score
77%
Model pick
Kloetinge 71%
Likely score
3-1 7%
Expected goals
3.36 – 1.60

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes77.1%1.301.73 Bet36557.8%+19.3
Match resultKloetinge71.2%1.4011.00 William Hill9.1%+62.1
Match resultDraw14.2%7.048.00 Bet36512.5%+1.7
Match resultCambuur14.6%6.861.19 Betano84.0%-69.5
Total goalsOver 1.596.0%1.041.08 Betano92.6%+3.4
Total goalsUnder 1.54.0%24.9810.00 Bet36510.0%-6.0
Total goalsOver 2.587.2%1.151.29 Betano77.5%+9.6
Total goalsUnder 2.512.8%7.794.00 Bet36525.0%-12.2
Total goalsOver 3.572.9%1.371.73 Bet36557.8%+15.1
Total goalsUnder 3.527.1%3.692.20 Bet36545.5%-18.3
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No22.9%4.382.25 William Hill44.4%-21.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Kloetinge favoured against Cambuur

Our model makes Kloetinge 71% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 14% and Cambuur at 15%. The goal projection is 3.36 for Kloetinge against 1.60 for Cambuur — a commanding edge to Kloetinge on expected output. A combined 4.96 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 87% and both teams to score at 77%. The single most likely scoreline is 3-1 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Kloetinge is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 29% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
3-1 7%
2-1 6%
4-1 6%
3-2 6%
2-2 5%

This season

Season records for Kloetinge and Cambuur
Kloetinge Cambuur
3Played12
2-0-1W-D-L4-3-5
2.00Pts / game1.25
4.00Goals for / game2.08
1.33Goals against / game2.25
67%Over 2.583%
33%BTTS67%
33%Clean sheets25%
33%Failed to score8%
1-0-1Home record2-1-4
1-0-0Away record2-2-1
L1StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kloetinge · Cambuur

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots13.6
—Shots on target6.2
—Corners4.0
—Cards2.20
—Fouls11.4
—Possession %45
—xG1.40
—sample5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots11.8
—Shots on target4.0
—Corners5.4
—Cards2.00
—Fouls15.2
—Possession %55
—xG1.40
—sample5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
KloetingeMetricCambuur
3.20 (better)Goals scored1.80
2.40Goals conceded1.00 (better)
Expected goals (xG)1.61
Big chances
Shots on target4.60
Total shots11.20
Touches in opp. box
Corners3.40
Possession %44.4
Passes341
Tackles
Fouls15.20
Offsides2.50
Throw-ins
Yellow cards2.60
Red cards0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Kloetinge wins
0
Draws
0
Cambuur wins
1
Goals / game
2.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
0%