Kisvarda FC won 0 of the last 5LLDDD11th1–1Ferencvarosi TC won 3 of the last 5WWWDD2nd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Kisvarda FC
Ferencvarosi TC
5
Shots
29
2
Shots on target
5
1
Corners
12
16
Fouls
16
2
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
2
198
Passes
531
36%
Possession %
64%
0.92
xG
2.71
20%
26%
54%
1 · Kisvarda FCXFerencvarosi TC · 2
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
24%
Both score
48%
Model pick
Ferencvarosi TC 54%
Likely score
0-1 13%
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.62
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Kisvarda FC
19.6%
5.11
8.00 Bet365
12.5%
+7.1
Match result
Draw
26.2%
3.82
4.40 Betfair
22.7%
+3.5
Match result
Ferencvarosi TC
54.2%
1.84
1.55 Betano
64.5%
-10.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
71.9%
1.39
1.18 Betano
84.7%
-12.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
28.1%
3.56
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
+8.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
45.5%
2.20
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-18.2
Total goals
Under 2.5
54.5%
1.83
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
+13.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
24.2%
4.14
2.38 Bet365
42.0%
-17.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
75.8%
1.32
1.60 Betano
62.5%
+13.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
47.5%
2.10
1.73 Bet365
57.8%
-10.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
52.5%
1.91
2.20 William Hill
45.5%
+7.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Ferencvarosi TC favoured against Kisvarda FC
Our model makes Kisvarda FC 20% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 26% and Ferencvarosi TC at 54%. The goal projection is 0.88 for Kisvarda FC against 1.62 for Ferencvarosi TC — a substantial edge to Ferencvarosi TC on expected output. A combined 2.50 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
0-1 13%
1-1 12%
0-2 11%
1-2 9%
0-0 9%
This season
Season records for Kisvarda FC and Ferencvarosi TC
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kisvarda FC
Metric
Ferencvarosi TC
2.60
Goals scored
2.80 (better)
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
1.00
0.45
Expected goals (xG)
1.68 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.50
Shots on target
5.25 (better)
12.50
Total shots
16.25 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00 (better)
Corners
4.00
44.0
Possession %
49.5 (better)
356
Passes
392 (better)
—
Tackles
—
14.50 (better)
Fouls
14.75
1.00 (better)
Offsides
3.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
0.75 (better)
Yellow cards
2.25
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Kisvarda FC v 
Ferencvarosi TC