Kifisia won 3 of the last 5WLWLW7th2–3Olympiakos Piraeus won 4 of the last 5DWWWW2nd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Kifisia
Olympiakos Piraeus
16
Shots
14
8
Shots on target
5
10
Corners
6
15
Fouls
18
6
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
1
383
Passes
409
49%
Possession %
51%
1.65
xG
1.05
18%
33%
50%
1 · KifisiaXOlympiakos Piraeus · 2
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
10%
Both score
31%
Model pick
Olympiakos Piraeus 50%
Likely score
0-1 20%
Expected goals
0.59 – 1.17
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Kifisia
18.0%
5.57
8.00 Betfair
12.5%
+5.5
Match result
Draw
32.5%
3.07
4.40 Dafabet
22.7%
+9.8
Match result
Olympiakos Piraeus
49.5%
2.02
1.48 Bet365
67.6%
-18.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
52.9%
1.89
1.30 Betano
76.9%
-24.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
47.1%
2.12
3.75 Bet365
26.7%
+20.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
25.7%
3.89
2.00 Bet365
50.0%
-24.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
74.3%
1.35
1.95 Bet365
51.3%
+23.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
10.1%
9.86
3.30 Betano
30.3%
-20.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
89.9%
1.11
1.36 Betano
73.5%
+16.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
31.2%
3.21
2.20 Bet365
45.5%
-14.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
68.8%
1.45
1.75 William Hill
57.1%
+11.7
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Olympiakos Piraeus favoured against Kifisia
Our model makes Kifisia 18% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 33% and Olympiakos Piraeus at 50%. The goal projection is 0.59 for Kifisia against 1.17 for Olympiakos Piraeus — a substantial edge to Olympiakos Piraeus on expected output. A combined 1.75 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 26% and both teams to score at 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 20%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kifisia
Metric
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.00
Goals scored
1.20 (better)
1.00
Goals conceded
0.00 (better)
1.15
Expected goals (xG)
1.44 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.75 (better)
Shots on target
3.60
12.25
Total shots
16.60 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.00 (better)
Corners
5.80
51.8
Possession %
53.8 (better)
380
Passes
434 (better)
—
Tackles
—
17.25
Fouls
13.00 (better)
2.00 (better)
Offsides
2.40
—
Throw-ins *
—
3.75
Yellow cards
2.20 (better)
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.25
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Kifisia v 
Olympiakos Piraeus