Kifisia v 
Aris Thessalonikis
Match statistics
| Kifisia | Aris Thessalonikis | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| — | Offsides | — |
| 298 | Passes | 279 |
| 52% | Possession % | 48% |
| 0.00 | xG | 0.00 |
- Over 1.5
- 66%
- Over 2.5
- 39%
- Over 3.5
- 19%
- Both score
- 46%
- Model pick
- Kifisia 35%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.13 – 1.11
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Kifisia -0.25
Why this price?
Back Kifisia -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.50 with Betano — Kifisia must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 42% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 46%; we judge it at 44%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.26. The offered 2.50 implies only 40%, so the price is 10.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.81 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Kifisia 1.13, Aris Thessalonikis 1.11.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Kifisia | 35.4% | 2.83 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | +2.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 30.4% | 3.29 | 3.35 Betano | 29.9% | +0.6 |
| Match result | Aris Thessalonikis | 34.2% | 2.92 | 2.50 William Hill | 40.0% | -5.8 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 66.4% | 1.51 | 1.31 Betano | 76.3% | -10.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 33.6% | 2.97 | 3.75 Bet365 | 26.7% | +7.0 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 38.8% | 2.57 | 2.07 Betano | 48.3% | -9.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.64 | 2.00 Bet365 | 50.0% | +11.2 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 18.9% | 5.29 | 4.33 Bet365 | 23.1% | -4.2 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 81.1% | 1.23 | 1.36 Bet365 | 73.5% | +7.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 46.2% | 2.16 | 1.95 William Hill | 51.3% | -5.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 53.8% | 1.86 | 2.12 Betano | 47.2% | +6.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Kifisia v Aris Thessalonikis: too close to call
Our model makes Kifisia 35% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 30% and Aris Thessalonikis at 34%. The goal projection is 1.13 for Kifisia against 1.11 for Aris Thessalonikis — almost nothing to Kifisia on expected output. A combined 2.24 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-0 11%
- 1-0 11%
- 0-1 11%
- 2-1 8%
This season
| Kifisia | Aris Thessalonikis | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 4-2-4 | W-D-L | 6-1-3 |
| 1.40 | Pts / game | 1.90 |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game | 1.60 |
| 1.50 | Goals against / game | 1.70 |
| 60% | Over 2.5 | 80% |
| 70% | BTTS | 50% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 40% |
| 1-2-2 | Home record | 4-1-0 |
| 3-0-2 | Away record | 2-0-3 |
| W1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kifisia · Aris Thessalonikis
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.2 | Shots | 14.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 6.2 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 3.00 | Cards | 1.80 |
| 14.2 | Fouls | 17.2 |
| 53 | Possession % | 58 |
| 1.24 | xG | 1.29 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 10.2 | Shots | 10.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 3.2 |
| 3.0 | Corners | 3.6 |
| 2.20 | Cards | 1.40 |
| 15.2 | Fouls | 13.6 |
| 47 | Possession % | 42 |
| 0.61 | xG | 1.05 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Kifisia | Metric | Aris Thessalonikis |
|---|---|---|
| 0.60 (better) | Goals scored | 0.40 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 1.40 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.06 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.50 (better) | Shots on target | 2.33 |
| 9.75 | Total shots | 15.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.25 | Corners | 5.33 (better) |
| 48.5 | Possession % | 51.0 (better) |
| 381 | Passes | 409 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 18.75 | Fouls | 15.00 (better) |
| 1.75 | Offsides | 1.50 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.50 | Yellow cards | 0.67 (better) |
| 1.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Kifisia wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Aris Thessalonikis wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 67%
- Kifisia v Aris Thessalonikis1–22026-10-18
- Aris Thessalonikis v Kifisia1–12026-02-22
- Kifisia v Aris Thessalonikis0–12025-09-20
Greek Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +17 | 27 | Panathinaikos won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +11 | 23 | Olympiakos Piraeus won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | AEK Athens FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +17 | 20 | AEK Athens FC won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | PAOK | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +6 | 19 | PAOK won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 19 | Aris Thessalonikis won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | OFI | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 17 | OFI won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Kifisia | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 | Kifisia won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Kalamata | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 | Kalamata won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Iraklis 1908 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 | Iraklis 1908 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 9 | Panetolikos won 0 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 7 | Asteras Tripolis won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Atromitos | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 6 | Atromitos won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 | Levadiakos won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 3 | Volos NFC won 0 of the last 5 |