KFUM Oslo v Ham-Kam

10th2–211th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
KFUM Oslo		Ham-Kam
13	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	2
3	Corners	6
6	Fouls	12
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	3
476	Passes	510
48%	Possession %	52%
1.16	xG	0.92

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 59%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: KFUM Oslo 47%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.74 – 1.31

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	KFUM Oslo	47.2%	2.12	2.10 Dafabet	47.6%	-0.5
Match result	Draw	24.5%	4.08	3.60 Betano	27.8%	-3.2
Match result	Ham-Kam	28.3%	3.53	3.80 Betano	26.3%	+2.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.4%	1.23	1.24 Betano	80.6%	+0.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.6%	5.37	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	-5.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.8%	1.70	1.75 Betano	57.1%	+1.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	41.2%	2.43	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-6.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	36.4%	2.74	2.88 BetVictor	34.7%	+1.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	63.6%	1.57	1.44 Betano	69.4%	-5.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.8%	1.65	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+0.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.2%	2.55	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-4.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

KFUM Oslo favoured against Ham-Kam

Our model makes KFUM Oslo 47% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 25% and Ham-Kam at 28%. The goal projection is 1.74 for KFUM Oslo against 1.31 for Ham-Kam — a clear edge to KFUM Oslo on expected output. A combined 3.05 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 2-0 7%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam
KFUM Oslo		Ham-Kam
26	Played	26
8-7-11	W-D-L	8-6-12
1.19	Pts / game	1.15
1.27	Goals for / game	1.46
1.77	Goals against / game	2.04
62%	Over 2.5	77%
65%	BTTS	58%
19%	Clean sheets	19%
19%	Failed to score	23%
6-3-4	Home record	6-2-5
2-4-7	Away record	2-4-7
L1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. KFUM Oslo · Ham-Kam

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.0	Shots	13.2
3.8	Shots on target	3.3
3.4	Corners	4.0
1.60	Cards	1.50
9.2	Fouls	11.5
45	Possession %	44
1.45	xG	1.72
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
20.8	Shots	17.5
6.0	Shots on target	5.8
6.2	Corners	5.3
2.40	Cards	1.37
12.0	Fouls	10.3
55	Possession %	56
2.23	xG	1.66
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
KFUM Oslo	Metric	Ham-Kam
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.31 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.12
	Big chances
4.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.00
9.75	Total shots	11.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.00 (better)	Corners	2.50
39.3 (better)	Possession %	38.5
383 (better)	Passes	359
	Tackles
9.25 (better)	Fouls	11.50
2.00 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	1.67
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

KFUM Oslo wins: 0
Draws: 2
Ham-Kam wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

KFUM Oslo v Ham-Kam2–22026-11-01
Ham-Kam v KFUM Oslo4–02026-04-19
KFUM Oslo v Ham-Kam2–22025-08-22

Eliteserien table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Viking	26	20	2	4	+42	62	Viking won 4 of the last 5
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	+40	62	Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 5
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	+21	46	Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	+4	45	Lillestrom won 4 of the last 5
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	+20	44	Molde won 2 of the last 5
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	+3	40	Tromso won 0 of the last 5
7	Brann	26	10	3	13	+3	33	Brann won 1 of the last 5
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	-4	32	Valerenga won 3 of the last 5
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	26	8	7	11	-10	31	Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5
10	KFUM Oslo	26	8	7	11	-13	31	KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 5
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Ham-Kam won 2 of the last 5
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	-8	28	Sandefjord won 1 of the last 5
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	-21	26	Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	-15	24	Aalesund won 1 of the last 5
16	Start	26	5	4	17	-32	19	Start won 1 of the last 5