Kawasaki Frontale v Vissel Kobe

8th2–15th

10:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Kawasaki Frontale		Vissel Kobe
17	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	2
10	Fouls	7
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	2
432	Passes	383
53%	Possession %	47%
2.09	xG	1.38

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Vissel Kobe 46%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.67

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Vissel Kobe 0

2.08Bet365 · fair 1.94 · qualifies at 1.99+ · 1.72u

Why this price?

Back Vissel Kobe 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.08 with Bet365 — Vissel Kobe to win; a draw returns the stake.

Our model puts the chance at 61% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 45%; we judge it at 52%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.94. The offered 2.08 implies only 48%, so the price is 7.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.72 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Kawasaki Frontale 1.29, Vissel Kobe 1.67.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Kawasaki Frontale	29.0%	3.45	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	-11.0
Match result	Draw	25.1%	3.98	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	-1.9
Match result	Vissel Kobe	45.9%	2.18	2.80 William Hill	35.7%	+10.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.1%	1.25	1.21 Betano	82.6%	-2.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.9%	5.02	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	-2.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.8%	1.76	1.67 Betano	59.9%	-3.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.2%	2.32	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-1.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.4%	2.90	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-3.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.6%	1.52	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.4%	1.68	1.53 William Hill	65.4%	-6.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.6%	2.46	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-0.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Vissel Kobe favoured against Kawasaki Frontale

Our model makes Kawasaki Frontale 29% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Vissel Kobe at 46%. The goal projection is 1.29 for Kawasaki Frontale against 1.67 for Vissel Kobe — a clear edge to Vissel Kobe on expected output. A combined 2.96 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 8%; 0-2 7%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for Kawasaki Frontale and Vissel Kobe
Kawasaki Frontale		Vissel Kobe
14	Played	14
6-4-4	W-D-L	8-3-3
1.57	Pts / game	1.93
2.00	Goals for / game	1.64
1.71	Goals against / game	1.00
79%	Over 2.5	57%
93%	BTTS	50%
7%	Clean sheets	43%
0%	Failed to score	14%
4-2-1	Home record	4-3-0
2-2-3	Away record	4-0-3
L2	Streak	D1

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kawasaki Frontale · Vissel Kobe

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.8	Shots	15.7
3.8	Shots on target	5.3
3.2	Corners	5.0
1.17	Cards	0.50
12.5	Fouls	6.3
54	Possession %	52
1.18	xG	1.57
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.0	Shots	16.5
5.0	Shots on target	6.2
5.0	Corners	5.5
1.83	Cards	1.50
9.3	Fouls	10.8
47	Possession %	49
1.46	xG	1.65
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kawasaki Frontale	Metric	Vissel Kobe
1.60	Goals scored	1.60
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
2.36 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.51
	Big chances
7.33 (better)	Shots on target	5.00
18.33 (better)	Total shots	15.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.67 (better)	Corners	3.75
49.3	Possession %	52.8 (better)
483 (better)	Passes	422
	Tackles
15.67	Fouls	7.00 (better)
1.33	Offsides	0.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.33	Yellow cards	0.50 (better)
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Kawasaki Frontale wins: 1
Draws: 0
Vissel Kobe wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Kawasaki Frontale v Vissel Kobe2–12026-10-21

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5