Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5LLWWW8th2–1Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5DLLWL10th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Kawasaki Frontale
Fagiano Okayama
6
Shots
20
2
Shots on target
2
3
Corners
8
9
Fouls
12
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
2
409
Passes
370
51%
Possession %
49%
0.65
xG
1.06
40%
25%
35%
1 · Kawasaki FrontaleXFagiano Okayama · 2
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
35%
Both score
60%
Model pick
Kawasaki Frontale 40%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.43
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
60.4%
1.66
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
+0.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
39.6%
2.52
2.30 Betfair
43.5%
-3.9
Match result
Kawasaki Frontale
39.9%
2.50
2.16 Dafabet
46.3%
-6.4
Match result
Draw
25.5%
3.92
3.60 BetVictor
27.8%
-2.3
Match result
Fagiano Okayama
34.6%
2.89
3.40 Betfair
29.4%
+5.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
80.3%
1.25
1.25 Bet365
80.0%
+0.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
19.7%
5.07
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
-4.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
57.1%
1.75
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
+1.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
42.9%
2.33
2.05 Bet365
48.8%
-5.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
34.7%
2.88
3.00 Bet365
33.3%
+1.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
65.3%
1.53
1.40 Bet365
71.4%
-6.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Kawasaki Frontale v Fagiano Okayama: too close to call
Our model makes Kawasaki Frontale 40% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Fagiano Okayama at 35%. The goal projection is 1.55 for Kawasaki Frontale against 1.43 for Fagiano Okayama — a slight edge to Kawasaki Frontale on expected output. A combined 2.98 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 12%
2-1 9%
1-2 8%
1-0 7%
0-1 7%
This season
Season records for Kawasaki Frontale and Fagiano Okayama
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kawasaki Frontale
Metric
Fagiano Okayama
2.40 (better)
Goals scored
1.60
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
1.60
1.41 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.21
—
Big chances *
—
3.50 (better)
Shots on target
2.00
10.00 (better)
Total shots
8.50
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.00
Corners
5.00 (better)
55.0 (better)
Possession %
47.5
542 (better)
Passes
362
—
Tackles
—
15.50
Fouls
10.50 (better)
4.00
Offsides
3.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.50 (better)
Yellow cards
2.00
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.50
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Kawasaki Frontale v 
Fagiano Okayama