Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5WWWDL2nd1–3Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5LLDDW13th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Kashiwa Reysol
Nagoya Grampus
15
Shots
9
3
Shots on target
4
7
Corners
2
11
Fouls
10
2
Yellow cards
0
—
Red cards
—
1
Offsides
1
609
Passes
422
59%
Possession %
41%
1.07
xG
1.72
45%
24%
31%
1 · Kashiwa ReysolXNagoya Grampus · 2
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
41%
Both score
65%
Model pick
Kashiwa Reysol 45%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.46
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Kashiwa Reysol
45.5%
2.20
1.70 BetVictor
58.8%
-13.3
Match result
Draw
23.8%
4.20
4.40 Dafabet
22.7%
+1.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
64.6%
1.55
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
+4.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
35.4%
2.82
2.25 BetVictor
44.4%
-9.0
Match result
Nagoya Grampus
30.7%
3.26
5.25 BetVictor
19.0%
+11.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
84.2%
1.19
1.19 Betano
84.0%
+0.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
15.8%
6.32
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
-4.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
63.3%
1.58
1.60 Betano
62.5%
+0.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
36.7%
2.72
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
-4.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
41.1%
2.43
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
+0.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
58.9%
1.70
1.55 Betano
64.5%
-5.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Kashiwa Reysol favoured against Nagoya Grampus
Our model makes Kashiwa Reysol 45% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Nagoya Grampus at 31%. The goal projection is 1.81 for Kashiwa Reysol against 1.46 for Nagoya Grampus — a clear edge to Kashiwa Reysol on expected output. A combined 3.26 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 9%
1-2 7%
2-2 7%
1-0 6%
This season
Season records for Kashiwa Reysol and Nagoya Grampus
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kashiwa Reysol
Metric
Nagoya Grampus
2.80 (better)
Goals scored
0.80
1.60 (better)
Goals conceded
2.00
—
Expected goals (xG)
0.79
—
Big chances *
—
4.00 (better)
Shots on target
1.50
12.67 (better)
Total shots
10.25
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00 (better)
Corners
3.75
63.0 (better)
Possession %
59.5
451
Passes
543 (better)
—
Tackles
—
7.67 (better)
Fouls
10.50
2.00
Offsides
1.75 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.67
Yellow cards
1.50 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Kashiwa Reysol v 
Nagoya Grampus