Kashiwa Reysol v Kawasaki Frontale

2nd2–18th

07:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Kashiwa Reysol		Kawasaki Frontale
22	Shots	9
9	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	2
5	Fouls	12
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
549	Passes	621
47%	Possession %	53%
1.67	xG	1.03

Over 1.5: 86%
Over 2.5: 66%
Over 3.5: 44%
Both score: 67%

Model pick: Kashiwa Reysol 44%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.83 – 1.58

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Kashiwa Reysol -0.5

2.18Betano · fair 1.96 · qualifies at 2.02+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Kashiwa Reysol -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.18 with Betano — Kashiwa Reysol must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 44% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 56%; we judge it at 51%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.96. The offered 2.18 implies only 46%, so the price is 11.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Kashiwa Reysol 1.83, Kawasaki Frontale 1.58.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Kashiwa Reysol	43.6%	2.29	2.23 Dafabet	44.8%	-1.2
Match result	Draw	23.4%	4.28	3.90 BetVictor	25.6%	-2.3
Match result	Kawasaki Frontale	33.0%	3.03	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-0.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.9%	1.17	1.15 Betano	87.0%	-1.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.1%	7.08	6.00 Bet365	16.7%	-2.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	66.2%	1.51	1.48 Bet365	67.6%	-1.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	33.8%	2.96	2.70 Betfair	37.0%	-3.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	44.3%	2.26	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-1.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	55.7%	1.80	1.70 Betano	58.8%	-3.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	67.1%	1.49	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-2.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	32.9%	3.04	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-1.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Kashiwa Reysol favoured against Kawasaki Frontale

Our model makes Kashiwa Reysol 44% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Kawasaki Frontale at 33%. The goal projection is 1.83 for Kashiwa Reysol against 1.58 for Kawasaki Frontale — a clear edge to Kashiwa Reysol on expected output. A combined 3.41 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Kashiwa Reysol and Kawasaki Frontale
Kashiwa Reysol		Kawasaki Frontale
14	Played	14
10-1-3	W-D-L	6-4-4
2.21	Pts / game	1.57
2.21	Goals for / game	2.00
1.43	Goals against / game	1.71
71%	Over 2.5	79%
64%	BTTS	93%
21%	Clean sheets	7%
21%	Failed to score	0%
5-0-2	Home record	4-2-1
5-1-1	Away record	2-2-3
W3	Streak	L2

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kashiwa Reysol · Kawasaki Frontale

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.3	Shots	10.8
6.0	Shots on target	3.8
4.5	Corners	3.2
1.67	Cards	1.17
10.0	Fouls	12.5
47	Possession %	54
1.15	xG	1.18
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.2	Shots	16.0
3.3	Shots on target	5.0
4.2	Corners	5.0
1.20	Cards	1.83
8.0	Fouls	9.3
53	Possession %	47
1.50	xG	1.46
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kashiwa Reysol	Metric	Kawasaki Frontale
1.80	Goals scored	2.80 (better)
1.20	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.50 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.27
	Big chances
4.20	Shots on target	4.67 (better)
13.00 (better)	Total shots	10.33
	Touches in opp. box
5.20 (better)	Corners	3.00
52.6	Possession %	54.3 (better)
536 (better)	Passes	477
	Tackles
10.40 (better)	Fouls	11.33
1.60 (better)	Offsides	4.00
	Throw-ins
1.60	Yellow cards	1.33 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Kashiwa Reysol wins: 2
Draws: 0
Kawasaki Frontale wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Kashiwa Reysol v Kawasaki Frontale2–12026-11-07
Kashiwa Reysol v Kawasaki Frontale1–02026-05-10
Kawasaki Frontale v Kashiwa Reysol5–32026-02-08

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5