Kashima v 
V-varen Nagasaki
Match statistics
| Kashima | V-varen Nagasaki | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 474 | Passes | 488 |
| 49% | Possession % | 51% |
| 1.30 | xG | 1.35 |
- Over 1.5
- 84%
- Over 2.5
- 63%
- Over 3.5
- 41%
- Both score
- 60%
- Model pick
- Kashima 60%
- Likely score
- 2-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 2.12 – 1.13
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Kashima -0.5
Why this price?
Back Kashima -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.52 with Betano — Kashima must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 60% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 79%; we judge it at 71%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.40. The offered 1.52 implies only 66%, so the price is 8.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Kashima 2.12, V-varen Nagasaki 1.13.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Kashima | 59.7% | 1.68 | 1.54 Dafabet | 64.9% | -5.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 21.3% | 4.68 | 4.50 Dafabet | 22.2% | -0.9 |
| Match result | V-varen Nagasaki | 18.9% | 5.28 | 6.00 BetVictor | 16.7% | +2.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 84.0% | 1.19 | 1.23 Betano | 81.3% | +2.7 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 16.0% | 6.24 | 4.50 Betfair | 22.2% | -6.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | 1.70 Bet365 | 58.8% | +4.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 37.0% | 2.71 | 2.20 Betano | 45.5% | -8.5 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 40.9% | 2.45 | 2.75 Bet365 | 36.4% | +4.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | 1.50 Betano | 66.7% | -7.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | +4.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 40.0% | 2.50 | 2.05 Betfair | 48.8% | -8.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Kashima favoured against V-varen Nagasaki
Our model makes Kashima 60% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 21% and V-varen Nagasaki at 19%. The goal projection is 2.12 for Kashima against 1.13 for V-varen Nagasaki — a commanding edge to Kashima on expected output. A combined 3.25 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-1 10%
- 1-1 10%
- 2-0 9%
- 1-0 8%
- 3-1 7%
This season
| Kashima | V-varen Nagasaki | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 7-2-5 | W-D-L | 3-4-7 |
| 1.64 | Pts / game | 0.93 |
| 2.07 | Goals for / game | 1.21 |
| 1.71 | Goals against / game | 1.57 |
| 64% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 64% | BTTS | 57% |
| 21% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 29% |
| 5-0-2 | Home record | 3-2-2 |
| 2-2-3 | Away record | 0-2-5 |
| L1 | Streak | D1 |
2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kashima · V-varen Nagasaki
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.2 | Shots | 12.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 2.8 |
| 5.7 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 1.17 | Cards | 1.83 |
| 10.8 | Fouls | 12.2 |
| 59 | Possession % | 44 |
| 1.40 | xG | 1.17 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 11.5 | Shots | 14.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 3.5 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 2.33 | Cards | 0.67 |
| 16.2 | Fouls | 13.2 |
| 41 | Possession % | 56 |
| 0.86 | xG | 1.34 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Kashima | Metric | V-varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.00 (better) |
| 1.57 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.10 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.50 (better) | Shots on target | 5.00 |
| 15.25 (better) | Total shots | 15.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.25 | Corners | 5.00 (better) |
| 53.5 (better) | Possession % | 38.0 |
| 478 (better) | Passes | 348 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.75 (better) | Fouls | 13.50 |
| 0.75 (better) | Offsides | 3.50 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.75 | Yellow cards | 1.50 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Kashima wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- V-varen Nagasaki wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Kashima v V-varen Nagasaki2–02026-10-17
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Tokyo | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | +25 | 33 | FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +11 | 31 | Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | +22 | 30 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | +20 | 29 | Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +9 | 27 | Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Kashima | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | +5 | 23 | Kashima won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | +6 | 22 | Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 22 | Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Urawa | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 22 | Urawa won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 17 | Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -9 | 17 | Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Kyoto Sanga | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 16 | Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -8 | 14 | Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Tokyo Verdy | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 14 | Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 14 | Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | V-varen Nagasaki | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 13 | V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | JEF United Chiba | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 13 | JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -8 | 12 | Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Mito Hollyhock | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -14 | 9 | Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Avispa Fukuoka | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -11 | 8 | Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5 |