Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol

6th2–32nd

06:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Kashima		Kashiwa Reysol
24	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	6
9	Corners	2
4	Fouls	13
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	3
621	Passes	397
62%	Possession %	38%
1.57	xG	0.67

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 68%
Over 3.5: 47%
Both score: 68%

Model pick: Kashima 48%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.99 – 1.53

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Kashiwa Reysol +0.25

2.50Bet365 · fair 2.25 · qualifies at 2.32+ · 1.84u

Why this price?

Back Kashiwa Reysol +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.50 with Bet365 — Kashiwa Reysol starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 46% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 43%; we judge it at 44%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.25. The offered 2.50 implies only 40%, so the price is 11.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.84 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Kashima 1.99, Kashiwa Reysol 1.53.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Kashima	48.0%	2.08	2.30 BetVictor	43.5%	+4.6
Match result	Draw	22.5%	4.44	3.65 Dafabet	27.4%	-4.9
Match result	Kashiwa Reysol	29.4%	3.40	3.05 Betano	32.8%	-3.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.1%	1.15	1.25 Bet365	80.0%	+7.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.9%	7.78	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	-10.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	68.4%	1.46	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+12.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.6%	3.17	2.08 Bet365	48.1%	-16.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	46.9%	2.13	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	+13.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	53.1%	1.88	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-17.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	68.2%	1.47	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+8.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	31.8%	3.14	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-11.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Kashima favoured against Kashiwa Reysol

Our model makes Kashima 48% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Kashiwa Reysol at 29%. The goal projection is 1.99 for Kashima against 1.53 for Kashiwa Reysol — a clear edge to Kashima on expected output. A combined 3.53 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 7%; 2-2 7%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Kashima and Kashiwa Reysol
Kashima		Kashiwa Reysol
14	Played	14
7-2-5	W-D-L	10-1-3
1.64	Pts / game	2.21
2.07	Goals for / game	2.21
1.71	Goals against / game	1.43
64%	Over 2.5	71%
64%	BTTS	64%
21%	Clean sheets	21%
14%	Failed to score	21%
5-0-2	Home record	5-0-2
2-2-3	Away record	5-1-1
L1	Streak	W3

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kashima · Kashiwa Reysol

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.2	Shots	15.3
4.7	Shots on target	6.0
5.7	Corners	4.5
1.17	Cards	1.67
10.8	Fouls	10.0
59	Possession %	47
1.40	xG	1.15
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.5	Shots	16.2
4.0	Shots on target	3.3
3.5	Corners	4.2
2.33	Cards	1.20
16.2	Fouls	8.0
41	Possession %	53
0.86	xG	1.50
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kashima	Metric	Kashiwa Reysol
3.20	Goals scored	4.40 (better)
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.51	Expected goals (xG)	2.96 (better)
	Big chances
5.25	Shots on target	7.67 (better)
14.00	Total shots	17.33 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
1.75	Corners	5.33 (better)
50.3	Possession %	55.7 (better)
507	Passes	560 (better)
	Tackles
12.00	Fouls	10.67 (better)
0.75 (better)	Offsides	1.00
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	1.67
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Kashima wins: 2
Draws: 0
Kashiwa Reysol wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5