Kashima v Cerezo Osaka

6th4–111th

06:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Kashima		Cerezo Osaka
16	Shots	16
7	Shots on target	3
10	Corners	2
14	Fouls	11
3	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
554	Passes	475
54%	Possession %	46%
2.44	xG	0.65

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: Kashima 54%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.84 – 1.12

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Kashima	53.8%	1.86	1.73 Dafabet	57.8%	-4.0
Match result	Draw	23.8%	4.19	4.10 Bet365	24.4%	-0.5
Match result	Cerezo Osaka	22.3%	4.48	4.75 BetVictor	21.1%	+1.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.0%	1.25	1.19 Betano	84.0%	-4.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.0%	5.00	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+0.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.7%	1.76	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-5.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.3%	2.31	2.35 Bet365	42.6%	+0.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.3%	2.91	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	-5.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.7%	1.52	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+0.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.1%	1.75	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-4.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.9%	2.33	2.30 BetVictor	43.5%	-0.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Kashima favoured against Cerezo Osaka

Our model makes Kashima 54% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Cerezo Osaka at 22%. The goal projection is 1.84 for Kashima against 1.12 for Cerezo Osaka — a substantial edge to Kashima on expected output. A combined 2.96 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 9%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Kashima and Cerezo Osaka
Kashima		Cerezo Osaka
14	Played	14
7-2-5	W-D-L	4-5-5
1.64	Pts / game	1.21
2.07	Goals for / game	1.14
1.71	Goals against / game	1.79
64%	Over 2.5	50%
64%	BTTS	57%
21%	Clean sheets	29%
14%	Failed to score	29%
5-0-2	Home record	3-3-1
2-2-3	Away record	1-2-4
L1	Streak	W1

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kashima · Cerezo Osaka

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.2	Shots	15.0
4.7	Shots on target	4.2
5.7	Corners	3.7
1.17	Cards	3.50
10.8	Fouls	10.7
59	Possession %	48
1.40	xG	1.10
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.5	Shots	14.0
4.0	Shots on target	4.3
3.5	Corners	4.0
2.33	Cards	1.83
16.2	Fouls	14.2
41	Possession %	53
0.86	xG	1.40
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kashima	Metric	Cerezo Osaka
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.15 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.90
	Big chances
4.50 (better)	Shots on target	3.00
12.00 (better)	Total shots	10.33
	Touches in opp. box
2.25	Corners	3.00 (better)
56.8 (better)	Possession %	44.7
526 (better)	Passes	404
	Tackles
11.25	Fouls	10.33 (better)
1.25 (better)	Offsides	1.67
	Throw-ins
0.75 (better)	Yellow cards	3.33
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Kashima wins: 1
Draws: 0
Cerezo Osaka wins: 0
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Kashima v Cerezo Osaka4–12026-10-31

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5