Kalmar FF won 2 of the last 5WDLLW13th0–3IF Brommapojkarna won 1 of the last 5DLDWL11th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Kalmar FF
IF Brommapojkarna
14
Shots
11
2
Shots on target
6
8
Corners
4
10
Fouls
8
0
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
4
Offsides
1
647
Passes
400
62%
Possession %
38%
1.35
xG
1.11
33%
26%
42%
1 · Kalmar FFXIF Brommapojkarna · 2
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
34%
Both score
60%
Model pick
IF Brommapojkarna 42%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.58
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
59.9%
1.67
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-0.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
40.1%
2.49
2.30 Betfair
43.5%
-3.4
Match result
Kalmar FF
32.7%
3.06
2.02 Betano
49.5%
-16.8
Match result
Draw
25.5%
3.92
3.90 Bet365
25.6%
-0.1
Match result
IF Brommapojkarna
41.8%
2.39
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
+19.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
80.0%
1.25
1.24 Betano
80.6%
-0.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
20.0%
4.99
4.33 Bet365
23.1%
-3.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
56.7%
1.76
1.75 Betano
57.1%
-0.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
43.3%
2.31
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-3.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
34.3%
2.92
2.88 Betfair
34.7%
-0.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
65.7%
1.52
1.44 Bet365
69.4%
-3.7
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
IF Brommapojkarna favoured against Kalmar FF
Our model makes Kalmar FF 33% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 25% and IF Brommapojkarna at 42%. The goal projection is 1.37 for Kalmar FF against 1.58 for IF Brommapojkarna — a slight edge to IF Brommapojkarna on expected output. A combined 2.96 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 12%
1-2 9%
2-1 8%
0-1 8%
1-0 7%
This season
Season records for Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kalmar FF
Metric
IF Brommapojkarna
0.00
Goals scored
1.75 (better)
1.75 (better)
Goals conceded
2.75
1.60 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.34
—
Big chances *
—
3.00
Shots on target
3.75 (better)
13.67 (better)
Total shots
11.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00 (better)
Corners
4.00
51.3 (better)
Possession %
43.3
481 (better)
Passes
437
—
Tackles
—
17.33
Fouls
11.75 (better)
1.00 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00 (better)
Yellow cards
1.75
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Kalmar FF v 
IF Brommapojkarna