Kalmar FF v Gais

13th0–19th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Kalmar FF		Gais
10	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	4
6	Corners	5
12	Fouls	20
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
553	Passes	451
55%	Possession %	45%
0.60	xG	0.56

Over 1.5: 69%
Over 2.5: 43%
Over 3.5: 22%
Both score: 48%

Model pick: Gais 44%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.03 – 1.35

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Gais 0

2.02Bet365 · fair 1.89 · qualifies at 1.95+ · 1.67u

Why this price?

Back Gais 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.02 with Bet365 — Gais to win; a draw returns the stake.

Our model puts the chance at 61% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 47%; we judge it at 53%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.89. The offered 2.02 implies only 50%, so the price is 6.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.67 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Kalmar FF 1.03, Gais 1.35.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Kalmar FF	27.7%	3.61	2.60 Betfair	38.5%	-10.7
Match result	Draw	28.6%	3.50	3.40 Betano	29.4%	-0.8
Match result	Gais	43.7%	2.29	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	+12.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	69.4%	1.44	1.30 Betano	76.9%	-7.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	30.6%	3.27	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	+2.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	42.5%	2.35	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-8.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	57.5%	1.74	1.87 Betano	53.5%	+4.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	21.7%	4.60	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-7.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	78.3%	1.28	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	+3.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	48.3%	2.07	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-8.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	51.7%	1.93	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	+5.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Gais favoured against Kalmar FF

Our model makes Kalmar FF 28% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 29% and Gais at 44%. The goal projection is 1.03 for Kalmar FF against 1.35 for Gais — a clear edge to Gais on expected output. A combined 2.38 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 12%; 0-0 10%; 1-0 9%; 1-2 9%

This season

Season records for Kalmar FF and Gais
Kalmar FF		Gais
28	Played	28
7-5-16	W-D-L	11-7-10
0.93	Pts / game	1.43
0.86	Goals for / game	1.29
1.50	Goals against / game	1.00
46%	Over 2.5	39%
36%	BTTS	39%
18%	Clean sheets	39%
54%	Failed to score	29%
6-2-6	Home record	6-5-3
1-3-10	Away record	5-2-7
W1	Streak	W3

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kalmar FF · Gais

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.4	Shots	13.7
3.4	Shots on target	3.6
4.9	Corners	5.0
0.57	Cards	2.29
14.1	Fouls	14.4
48	Possession %	50
1.27	xG	1.15
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.7	Shots	13.9
4.7	Shots on target	4.9
5.1	Corners	5.9
2.00	Cards	1.57
14.3	Fouls	13.9
52	Possession %	50
1.09	xG	1.48
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kalmar FF	Metric	Gais
0.50	Goals scored	1.00 (better)
1.75	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.73 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.50
	Big chances
4.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.40
14.00	Total shots	14.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.33 (better)	Corners	3.80
45.3	Possession %	54.8 (better)
418	Passes	526 (better)
	Tackles
16.00	Fouls	13.00 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	2.33
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.20
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.67

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Kalmar FF wins: 0
Draws: 0
Gais wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 0%

Kalmar FF v Gais0–12026-10-29
Gais v Kalmar FF3–02026-05-30

Allsvenskan table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hammarby FF	28	18	4	6	+37	58	Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5
2	Sirius	28	18	4	6	+23	58	Sirius won 1 of the last 5
3	Djurgardens IF	28	16	4	8	+29	52	Djurgardens IF won 2 of the last 5
4	BK Hacken	28	13	10	5	+17	49	BK Hacken won 3 of the last 5
5	IF Elfsborg	28	12	10	6	+11	46	IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5
6	Vasteras SK FK	28	13	6	9	+2	45	Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5
7	Malmo FF	28	12	5	11	+6	41	Malmo FF won 1 of the last 5
8	AIK Stockholm	28	11	8	9	-3	41	AIK Stockholm won 2 of the last 5
9	Gais	28	11	7	10	+8	40	Gais won 3 of the last 5
10	IFK Goteborg	28	10	9	9	-10	39	IFK Goteborg won 0 of the last 5
11	IF Brommapojkarna	28	9	8	11	-5	35	IF Brommapojkarna won 1 of the last 5
12	Mjallby AIF	28	6	10	12	-13	28	Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5
13	Kalmar FF	28	7	5	16	-18	26	Kalmar FF won 2 of the last 5
14	Degerfors IF	28	5	5	18	-25	20	Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5
15	Orgryte IS	28	4	8	16	-27	20	Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5
16	Halmstad	28	5	5	18	-32	20	Halmstad won 2 of the last 5