Kalamata v OFI

8th4–36th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Kalamata		OFI
13	Shots	8
9	Shots on target	3
1	Corners	6
17	Fouls	9
4	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	2
318	Passes	513
38%	Possession %	62%
1.79	xG	1.98

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: OFI 38%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.50 – 1.52

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Kalamata	36.7%	2.72	2.90 Bet365	34.5%	+2.3
Match result	Draw	25.6%	3.91	3.30 Betfair	30.3%	-4.7
Match result	OFI	37.7%	2.65	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	+4.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.0%	1.24	1.38 Betano	72.5%	+8.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.0%	5.25	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-10.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.0%	1.73	2.12 Betano	47.2%	+10.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.0%	2.38	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-15.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.6%	2.81	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	+8.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	64.4%	1.55	1.29 Betano	77.5%	-13.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.2%	1.63	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+10.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.8%	2.58	1.95 William Hill	51.3%	-12.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Kalamata v OFI: too close to call

Our model makes Kalamata 37% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 26% and OFI at 38%. The goal projection is 1.50 for Kalamata against 1.52 for OFI — almost nothing to OFI on expected output. A combined 3.01 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 7%; 1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Kalamata and OFI
Kalamata		OFI
10	Played	10
3-3-4	W-D-L	5-2-3
1.20	Pts / game	1.70
1.50	Goals for / game	1.40
1.90	Goals against / game	1.20
50%	Over 2.5	50%
70%	BTTS	40%
0%	Clean sheets	50%
30%	Failed to score	20%
2-1-2	Home record	3-2-0
1-2-2	Away record	2-0-3
D2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kalamata · OFI

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.5	Shots	10.5
4.7	Shots on target	3.3
2.3	Corners	6.0
2.50	Cards	2.37
13.6	Fouls	11.7
42	Possession %	56
1.43	xG	1.48
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.0	Shots	14.2
4.7	Shots on target	5.0
6.2	Corners	5.2
2.37	Cards	2.53
13.4	Fouls	15.7
58	Possession %	44
1.15	xG	1.25
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kalamata	Metric	OFI
1.40	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.20	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.29 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.67
	Big chances
4.33 (better)	Shots on target	3.25
13.33 (better)	Total shots	10.75
	Touches in opp. box
3.67	Corners	3.75 (better)
41.3	Possession %	44.5 (better)
318	Passes	407 (better)
	Tackles
15.00	Fouls	7.50 (better)
2.00	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.33	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
1.00	Red cards	0.33 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Kalamata wins: 1
Draws: 0
OFI wins: 0
Goals / game: 7.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Kalamata v OFI4–32026-10-18

Greek Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Panathinaikos	10	9	0	1	+17	27	Panathinaikos won 4 of the last 5
2	Olympiakos Piraeus	10	7	2	1	+11	23	Olympiakos Piraeus won 4 of the last 5
3	AEK Athens FC	9	6	2	1	+17	20	AEK Athens FC won 4 of the last 5
4	PAOK	10	6	1	3	+6	19	PAOK won 2 of the last 5
5	Aris Thessalonikis	10	6	1	3	-1	19	Aris Thessalonikis won 4 of the last 5
6	OFI	10	5	2	3	+2	17	OFI won 2 of the last 5
7	Kifisia	10	4	2	4	0	14	Kifisia won 3 of the last 5
8	Kalamata	10	3	3	4	-4	12	Kalamata won 2 of the last 5
9	Iraklis 1908	10	2	4	4	-3	10	Iraklis 1908 won 1 of the last 5
10	Panetolikos	10	3	0	7	-12	9	Panetolikos won 0 of the last 5
11	Asteras Tripolis	10	1	4	5	-9	7	Asteras Tripolis won 1 of the last 5
12	Atromitos	9	1	3	5	-3	6	Atromitos won 1 of the last 5
13	Levadiakos	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Levadiakos won 1 of the last 5
14	Volos NFC	10	0	3	7	-12	3	Volos NFC won 0 of the last 5