Juve Stabia v Sudtirol

9th3–011th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Juve Stabia		Sudtirol
22	Shots	6
9	Shots on target	2
2	Corners	3
18	Fouls	17
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	1
1	Offsides	0
438	Passes	435
66%	Possession %	34%
2.73	xG	0.28

Over 1.5: 62%
Over 2.5: 35%
Over 3.5: 16%
Both score: 43%

Model pick: Juve Stabia 37%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.09 – 0.99

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Juve Stabia -0.5

2.15Betano · fair 1.94 · qualifies at 2.00+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Juve Stabia -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.15 with Betano — Juve Stabia must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 37% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 61%; we judge it at 51%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.94. The offered 2.15 implies only 47%, so the price is 10.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Juve Stabia 1.09, Sudtirol 0.99.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Juve Stabia	36.5%	2.74	2.25 Betano	44.4%	-7.9
Match result	Draw	31.7%	3.16	3.30 BetVictor	30.3%	+1.4
Match result	Sudtirol	31.8%	3.15	3.70 Betano	27.0%	+4.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	62.4%	1.60	1.35 Betano	74.1%	-11.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	37.6%	2.66	3.45 Betano	29.0%	+8.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	34.6%	2.89	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-13.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	65.4%	1.53	1.80 Betano	55.6%	+9.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	15.8%	6.33	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-12.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	84.2%	1.19	1.31 Betano	76.3%	+7.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	42.6%	2.35	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-9.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	57.4%	1.74	1.98 Betano	50.5%	+6.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Juve Stabia v Sudtirol: too close to call

Our model makes Juve Stabia 37% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 32% and Sudtirol at 32%. The goal projection is 1.09 for Juve Stabia against 0.99 for Sudtirol — almost nothing to Juve Stabia on expected output. A combined 2.08 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 35% and both teams to score at 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-0 13%; 1-0 13%; 0-1 12%; 2-0 7%

This season

Season records for Juve Stabia and Sudtirol
Juve Stabia		Sudtirol
11	Played	11
4-4-3	W-D-L	3-6-2
1.45	Pts / game	1.36
1.09	Goals for / game	1.18
1.00	Goals against / game	1.09
36%	Over 2.5	27%
45%	BTTS	55%
27%	Clean sheets	27%
27%	Failed to score	27%
2-1-2	Home record	2-4-0
2-3-1	Away record	1-2-2
W1	Streak	D2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Juve Stabia · Sudtirol

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.5	Shots	13.1
4.2	Shots on target	3.9
4.2	Corners	3.4
1.67	Cards	2.33
12.7	Fouls	13.1
53	Possession %	52
1.29	xG	1.33
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.8	Shots	15.3
3.8	Shots on target	4.9
5.8	Corners	5.1
1.83	Cards	2.57
14.3	Fouls	12.6
47	Possession %	48
1.26	xG	1.71
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Juve Stabia	Metric	Sudtirol
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
1.40	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.25 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.00
	Big chances
4.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.50
14.00 (better)	Total shots	10.50
	Touches in opp. box
4.67 (better)	Corners	3.75
55.7 (better)	Possession %	49.8
471 (better)	Passes	468
	Tackles
13.00	Fouls	12.75 (better)
1.33	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
0.67 (better)	Yellow cards	2.25
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Juve Stabia wins: 2
Draws: 1
Sudtirol wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Juve Stabia v Sudtirol3–02026-10-18
Sudtirol v Juve Stabia1–12026-05-08
Juve Stabia v Sudtirol1–02025-12-27

Serie B table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27	Palermo won 3 of the last 5
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	+10	23	Modena won 3 of the last 5
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20	Ascoli won 2 of the last 5
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19	Mantova won 1 of the last 5
5	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16	Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16	Avellino won 1 of the last 5
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Benevento won 1 of the last 5
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16	Pisa won 1 of the last 5
9	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	16	Juve Stabia won 3 of the last 5
10	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Cremonese won 3 of the last 5
11	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15	Sudtirol won 0 of the last 5
12	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15	Padova won 2 of the last 5
13	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15	Cesena won 2 of the last 5
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-7	11	Sampdoria won 2 of the last 5
15	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11	Arezzo won 1 of the last 5
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	-3	10	Virtus Entella won 1 of the last 5
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	-5	10	Carrarese won 2 of the last 5
18	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9	Empoli won 0 of the last 5
19	Vicenza Virtus	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Vicenza Virtus won 1 of the last 5
20	Catanzaro	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Catanzaro won 0 of the last 5