Juve Stabia v Hellas Verona

9th0–15th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Juve Stabia		Hellas Verona
11	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	4
5	Corners	8
5	Fouls	13
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	3
496	Passes	451
52%	Possession %	48%
0.85	xG	1.35

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Juve Stabia 45%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.52 – 1.16

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Juve Stabia

2.85Dafabet · fair 2.67 · qualifies at 2.75+ · 0.93u

Why this price?

Back Juve Stabia to win at 2.85 with Dafabet.

Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 33%; we judge it at 38%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.67. The offered 2.85 implies only 35%, so the price is 6.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.93 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Juve Stabia 1.52, Hellas Verona 1.16.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Juve Stabia	44.9%	2.23	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	+12.6
Match result	Draw	26.7%	3.75	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	-2.7
Match result	Hellas Verona	28.4%	3.52	2.60 Bet365	38.5%	-10.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.3%	1.33	1.29 Betano	77.5%	-2.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.7%	4.04	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-1.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	50.0%	2.00	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-1.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.0%	2.00	1.95 Betano	51.3%	-1.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	28.0%	3.57	3.30 Betfair	30.3%	-2.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.0%	1.39	1.39 Betano	71.9%	+0.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.1%	1.85	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	-3.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.9%	2.18	2.25 Betano	44.4%	+1.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Juve Stabia favoured against Hellas Verona

Our model makes Juve Stabia 45% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 27% and Hellas Verona at 28%. The goal projection is 1.52 for Juve Stabia against 1.16 for Hellas Verona — a clear edge to Juve Stabia on expected output. A combined 2.67 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 2-0 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Juve Stabia and Hellas Verona
Juve Stabia		Hellas Verona
11	Played	11
4-4-3	W-D-L	4-4-3
1.45	Pts / game	1.45
1.09	Goals for / game	1.73
1.00	Goals against / game	1.18
36%	Over 2.5	64%
45%	BTTS	64%
27%	Clean sheets	36%
27%	Failed to score	9%
2-1-2	Home record	3-2-1
2-3-1	Away record	1-2-2
W1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Juve Stabia · Hellas Verona

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.5	Shots	15.0
4.2	Shots on target	4.9
4.2	Corners	5.7
1.67	Cards	1.71
12.7	Fouls	14.0
53	Possession %	49
1.29	xG	1.43
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.8	Shots	14.4
3.8	Shots on target	3.6
5.8	Corners	4.7
1.83	Cards	1.43
14.3	Fouls	8.4
47	Possession %	51
1.26	xG	1.40
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Juve Stabia	Metric	Hellas Verona
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	2.00
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.79 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.53
	Big chances
4.67	Shots on target	5.50 (better)
16.67 (better)	Total shots	16.50
	Touches in opp. box
3.67	Corners	7.00 (better)
58.7 (better)	Possession %	52.5
472 (better)	Passes	452
	Tackles
14.33 (better)	Fouls	14.50
1.67	Offsides	0.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.67 (better)	Yellow cards	3.00
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Juve Stabia wins: 0
Draws: 0
Hellas Verona wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Juve Stabia v Hellas Verona0–12026-10-28

Serie B table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27	Palermo won 3 of the last 5
2	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20	Ascoli won 2 of the last 5
3	Modena	10	6	2	2	+8	20	Modena won 3 of the last 5
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19	Mantova won 1 of the last 5
5	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16	Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16	Avellino won 1 of the last 5
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Benevento won 1 of the last 5
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16	Pisa won 1 of the last 5
9	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	16	Juve Stabia won 3 of the last 5
10	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15	Sudtirol won 0 of the last 5
11	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15	Padova won 2 of the last 5
12	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15	Cesena won 2 of the last 5
13	Cremonese	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Cremonese won 2 of the last 5
14	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11	Arezzo won 1 of the last 5
15	Virtus Entella	10	2	4	4	-1	10	Virtus Entella won 1 of the last 5
16	Carrarese	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Carrarese won 3 of the last 5
17	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9	Empoli won 0 of the last 5
18	Sampdoria	10	2	2	6	-8	8	Sampdoria won 1 of the last 5
19	Vicenza Virtus	9	1	3	5	-8	6	Vicenza Virtus won 1 of the last 5
20	Catanzaro	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Catanzaro won 0 of the last 5