No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
JOS Watergraafsmeer
46.7%
2.14
29.00 William Hill
3.4%
+43.3
Match result
Draw
21.0%
4.76
12.00 Dafabet
8.3%
+12.7
Match result
NAC Breda
32.2%
3.10
1.08 Bet365
92.6%
-60.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
91.4%
1.09
1.07 Bet365
93.5%
-2.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
8.6%
11.65
9.00 Bet365
11.1%
-2.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
76.6%
1.30
1.25 Bet365
80.0%
-3.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
23.4%
4.28
4.00 Bet365
25.0%
-1.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
57.2%
1.75
1.73 Betfair
57.8%
-0.6
Total goals
Under 3.5
42.8%
2.34
2.20 Bet365
45.5%
-2.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
75.0%
1.33
2.25 Betano
44.4%
+30.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
25.0%
4.00
1.67 William Hill
59.9%
-34.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
JOS Watergraafsmeer favoured against NAC Breda
Our model makes JOS Watergraafsmeer 47% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 21% and NAC Breda at 32%. The goal projection is 2.20 for JOS Watergraafsmeer against 1.83 for NAC Breda — a clear edge to JOS Watergraafsmeer on expected output. A combined 4.03 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 77% and both teams to score at 75%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-1 8%
1-1 8%
2-2 7%
1-2 7%
3-1 6%
This season
Season records for JOS Watergraafsmeer and NAC Breda
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
JOS Watergraafsmeer
Metric
NAC Breda
2.40 (better)
Goals scored
2.20
2.80
Goals conceded
1.00 (better)
—
Expected goals (xG)
1.74
—
Big chances *
—
—
Shots on target
7.00
—
Total shots
17.80
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
—
Corners
5.40
—
Possession %
52.8
—
Passes
445
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
10.40
—
Offsides
1.80
—
Throw-ins *
—
—
Yellow cards
1.60
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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JOS Watergraafsmeer v 
NAC Breda