Jeonbuk Motors v 
Jeju United FC
Match statistics
| Jeonbuk Motors | Jeju United FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| — | Fouls | — |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 0 |
| — | Passes | — |
| 48% | Possession % | 52% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 65%
- Over 2.5
- 37%
- Over 3.5
- 18%
- Both score
- 45%
- Model pick
- Jeonbuk Motors 37%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.13 – 1.05
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Jeju United FC
Why this price?
Back Jeju United FC to win at 3.75 with Betano.
Our model puts the chance at 33% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 25%; we judge it at 28%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.54. The offered 3.75 implies only 27%, so the price is 5.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.54 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Jeonbuk Motors 1.13, Jeju United FC 1.05.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Jeonbuk Motors | 36.8% | 2.72 | 2.03 Dafabet | 49.3% | -12.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 55.2% | 1.81 | 2.00 William Hill | 50.0% | +5.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 30.6% | 3.27 | — | — | — |
| Match result | Jeju United FC | 32.6% | 3.06 | 3.80 BetVictor | 26.3% | +6.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 64.8% | 1.54 | 1.31 Betano | 76.3% | -11.5 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 35.2% | 2.84 | 3.50 Bet365 | 28.6% | +6.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 37.3% | 2.68 | 1.90 Bet365 | 52.6% | -15.3 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 62.7% | 1.59 | 1.90 Bet365 | 52.6% | +10.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 17.8% | 5.63 | 3.25 Bet365 | 30.8% | -13.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 82.2% | 1.22 | 1.33 Bet365 | 75.2% | +7.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 44.8% | 2.23 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | -10.8 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Jeonbuk Motors v Jeju United FC: too close to call
Our model makes Jeonbuk Motors 37% to win this K League 1 fixture, with the draw at 31% and Jeju United FC at 33%. The goal projection is 1.13 for Jeonbuk Motors against 1.05 for Jeju United FC — almost nothing to Jeonbuk Motors on expected output. A combined 2.18 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 1-0 12%
- 0-0 12%
- 0-1 11%
- 2-1 8%
This season
| Jeonbuk Motors | Jeju United FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Played | 35 |
| 12-13-10 | W-D-L | 12-12-11 |
| 1.40 | Pts / game | 1.37 |
| 1.29 | Goals for / game | 1.17 |
| 1.03 | Goals against / game | 1.11 |
| 40% | Over 2.5 | 43% |
| 54% | BTTS | 60% |
| 40% | Clean sheets | 31% |
| 23% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 8-4-5 | Home record | 5-8-5 |
| 4-9-5 | Away record | 7-4-6 |
| L1 | Streak | D2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Jeonbuk Motors · Jeju United FC
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 11.0 | Shots | 9.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 3.4 |
| 2.6 | Corners | 3.4 |
| 1.60 | Cards | 2.20 |
| — | Fouls | — |
| 49 | Possession % | 46 |
| — | xG | — |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 10.4 | Shots | 11.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.2 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 5.2 | Corners | 3.4 |
| 1.40 | Cards | 2.00 |
| — | Fouls | — |
| 51 | Possession % | 54 |
| — | xG | — |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Jeonbuk Motors | Metric | Jeju United FC |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 0.80 (better) |
| Expected goals (xG) | ||
| Big chances | ||
| 4.60 (better) | Shots on target | 3.60 |
| 13.40 | Total shots | 14.40 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.00 | Corners | 4.00 (better) |
| 46.4 | Possession % | 51.8 (better) |
| 420 (better) | Passes | 406 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.80 (better) | Fouls | 11.00 |
| 0.80 (better) | Offsides | 1.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Jeonbuk Motors wins
- 2
- Draws
- 1
- Jeju United FC wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.25
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 75%
- Jeonbuk Motors v Jeju United FC3–22026-10-18
- Jeonbuk Motors v Jeju United FC1–32026-08-08
- Jeju United FC v Jeonbuk Motors0–22026-05-02
- Jeju United FC v Jeonbuk Motors1–12025-10-03
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 35 | 20 | 7 | 8 | +30 | 67 | FC Seoul won 1 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 35 | 17 | 6 | 12 | +7 | 57 | Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Daejeon Citizen | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | +14 | 53 | Daejeon Citizen won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Gangwon FC | 35 | 12 | 15 | 8 | +10 | 51 | Gangwon FC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Jeonbuk Motors | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | +9 | 49 | Jeonbuk Motors won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Incheon United | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | +7 | 49 | Incheon United won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Jeju United FC | 35 | 12 | 12 | 11 | +2 | 48 | Jeju United FC won 0 of the last 5 |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 35 | 11 | 13 | 11 | -8 | 46 | FC Anyang won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 35 | 11 | 11 | 13 | -9 | 44 | Pohang Steelers won 0 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 35 | 6 | 20 | 9 | -7 | 38 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 35 | 7 | 12 | 16 | -16 | 33 | Bucheon FC 1995 won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 35 | 3 | 14 | 18 | -39 | 23 | Gwangju FC won 2 of the last 5 |