Predicted Edge

Jeonbuk Motors v Daejeon Citizen

Jeonbuk Motors won 1 of the last 55th0–0Daejeon Citizen won 4 of the last 53rd

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Jeonbuk Motors Daejeon Citizen
8Shots8
2Shots on target2
1Corners6
—Fouls—
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
—Offsides—
—Passes—
46%Possession %54%
—xG—
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
30%
Both score
56%
Model pick
Daejeon Citizen 39%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.43

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

Jeonbuk Motors -0.5

2.52Betano · fair 2.28 · qualifies at 2.35+ · 1.74u
Why this price?

Back Jeonbuk Motors -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.52 with Betano — Jeonbuk Motors must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 50%; we judge it at 44%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.28. The offered 2.52 implies only 40%, so the price is 10.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.74 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Jeonbuk Motors 1.32, Daejeon Citizen 1.43.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultJeonbuk Motors34.0%2.942.60 Dafabet38.5%-4.4
Match resultDraw26.7%3.753.60 Betfair27.8%-1.1
Match resultDaejeon Citizen39.3%2.552.75 Dafabet36.4%+2.9
Total goalsOver 1.576.7%1.301.23 Betano81.3%-4.6
Total goalsUnder 1.523.3%4.284.33 Betfair23.1%+0.2
Total goalsOver 2.551.9%1.931.73 Betfair57.8%-5.9
Total goalsUnder 2.548.1%2.082.15 Betfair46.5%+1.6
Total goalsOver 3.529.7%3.362.88 Betfair34.7%-5.0
Total goalsUnder 3.570.3%1.421.45 Betano69.0%+1.3
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes56.4%1.771.57 William Hill63.7%-7.3
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No43.6%2.292.45 Betfair40.8%+2.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Jeonbuk Motors v Daejeon Citizen: too close to call

Our model makes Jeonbuk Motors 34% to win this K League 1 fixture, with the draw at 27% and Daejeon Citizen at 39%. The goal projection is 1.32 for Jeonbuk Motors against 1.43 for Daejeon Citizen — a slight edge to Daejeon Citizen on expected output. A combined 2.75 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-2 9%
0-1 9%
2-1 8%
1-0 8%

This season

Season records for Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen
Jeonbuk Motors Daejeon Citizen
35Played35
12-13-10W-D-L14-11-10
1.40Pts / game1.51
1.29Goals for / game1.57
1.03Goals against / game1.17
40%Over 2.551%
54%BTTS54%
40%Clean sheets29%
23%Failed to score29%
8-4-5Home record7-6-5
4-9-5Away record7-5-5
L1StreakW1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Jeonbuk Motors · Daejeon Citizen

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.0Shots10.8
4.8Shots on target4.0
2.6Corners5.4
1.60Cards0.80
—Fouls—
49Possession %53
—xG—
5 matchessample5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.4Shots10.0
5.2Shots on target4.2
5.2Corners3.0
1.40Cards2.20
—Fouls—
51Possession %47
—xG—
5 matchessample5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Jeonbuk MotorsMetricDaejeon Citizen
1.40Goals scored1.80 (better)
1.80Goals conceded1.20 (better)
1.34Expected goals (xG)1.68 (better)
Big chances
5.67 (better)Shots on target5.00
16.33 (better)Total shots15.50
Touches in opp. box
5.67 (better)Corners5.25
55.0 (better)Possession %49.3
508 (better)Passes424
Tackles
7.00 (better)Fouls12.00
1.33 (better)Offsides2.00
Throw-ins
0.67 (better)Yellow cards1.00
0.00Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Jeonbuk Motors wins
3
Draws
2
Daejeon Citizen wins
1
Goals / game
1.50
Over 2.5
33%
Both score
33%
K League 1 table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1FC Seoul352078+3067FC Seoul won 1 of the last 5
2Ulsan Hyundai FC3517612+757Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3 of the last 5
3Daejeon Citizen35141110+1453Daejeon Citizen won 4 of the last 5
4Gangwon FC3512158+1051Gangwon FC won 2 of the last 5
5Jeonbuk Motors35121310+949Jeonbuk Motors won 1 of the last 5
6Incheon United35131012+749Incheon United won 3 of the last 5
7Jeju United FC35121211+248Jeju United FC won 0 of the last 5
8FC Anyang35111311-846FC Anyang won 2 of the last 5
9Pohang Steelers35111113-944Pohang Steelers won 0 of the last 5
10Gimcheon Sangmu FC356209-738Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 1 of the last 5
11Bucheon FC 19953571216-1633Bucheon FC 1995 won 0 of the last 5
12Gwangju FC3531418-3923Gwangju FC won 2 of the last 5