Jeju United FC won 0 of the last 5DDLLL7th1–1Gwangju FC won 2 of the last 5DDWLW12th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Jeju United FC
Gwangju FC
16
Shots
9
5
Shots on target
4
3
Corners
2
—
Fouls
—
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
52%
Possession %
48%
—
xG
—
52%
24%
23%
1 · Jeju United FCXGwangju FC · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
57%
Model pick
Jeju United FC 52%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.12
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Jeju United FC
52.3%
1.91
1.91 William Hill
52.4%
-0.0
Match result
Draw
24.4%
4.10
3.80 Betfair
26.3%
-1.9
Match result
Gwangju FC
23.3%
4.30
4.50 Betfair
22.2%
+1.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
79.1%
1.26
1.26 Betano
79.4%
-0.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
20.9%
4.79
4.00 Betfair
25.0%
-4.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
55.4%
1.80
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
+2.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
44.6%
2.24
2.00 Betano
50.0%
-5.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
33.1%
3.02
3.10 BetVictor
32.3%
+0.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
66.9%
1.49
1.39 Betano
71.9%
-5.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
56.6%
1.77
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
+1.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
43.4%
2.30
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
-4.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Jeju United FC favoured against Gwangju FC
Our model makes Jeju United FC 52% to win this K League 1 fixture, with the draw at 24% and Gwangju FC at 23%. The goal projection is 1.78 for Jeju United FC against 1.12 for Gwangju FC — a substantial edge to Jeju United FC on expected output. A combined 2.90 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Jeju United FC
Metric
Gwangju FC
1.40
Goals scored
2.40 (better)
2.00
Goals conceded
1.80 (better)
—
Expected goals (xG)
2.30
—
Big chances *
—
2.75
Shots on target
5.20 (better)
10.25
Total shots
13.40 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
2.50 (better)
Corners
1.60
46.0 (better)
Possession %
42.6
340
Passes
375 (better)
—
Tackles
—
9.75 (better)
Fouls
10.60
2.50
Offsides
1.20 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.50
Yellow cards
2.00 (better)
0.25
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Jeju United FC v 
Gwangju FC