JEF United Chiba v Yokohama F. Marinos

17th0–07th

05:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
JEF United Chiba		Yokohama F. Marinos
16	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	2
8	Corners	6
17	Fouls	12
4	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	1
305	Passes	430
42%	Possession %	58%
0.74	xG	0.76

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 38%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Yokohama F. Marinos 58%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.11 – 2.02

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 3.5

3.25Bet365 · fair 2.94 · qualifies at 3.06+ · 1.18u

Why this price?

Back over 3.5 goals at 3.25 with Bet365 — 4 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 38% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 31%; we judge it at 34%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.94. The offered 3.25 implies only 31%, so the price is 10.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.18 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: JEF United Chiba 1.11, Yokohama F. Marinos 2.02.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	JEF United Chiba	19.8%	5.04	3.80 Dafabet	26.3%	-6.5
Match result	Draw	22.2%	4.51	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	-4.5
Match result	Yokohama F. Marinos	58.0%	1.73	2.10 BetVictor	47.6%	+10.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.5%	1.21	1.28 Betano	78.1%	+4.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.5%	5.72	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-6.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	60.6%	1.65	1.85 Bet365	54.1%	+6.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	39.4%	2.54	2.05 Betano	48.8%	-9.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	38.3%	2.61	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+7.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	61.7%	1.62	1.40 Betfair	71.4%	-9.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.7%	1.70	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	+1.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.3%	2.42	2.05 William Hill	48.8%	-7.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Yokohama F. Marinos favoured against JEF United Chiba

Our model makes JEF United Chiba 20% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 22% and Yokohama F. Marinos at 58%. The goal projection is 1.11 for JEF United Chiba against 2.02 for Yokohama F. Marinos — a commanding edge to Yokohama F. Marinos on expected output. A combined 3.14 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-2 9%; 0-1 8%; 1-3 7%

This season

Season records for JEF United Chiba and Yokohama F. Marinos
JEF United Chiba		Yokohama F. Marinos
14	Played	14
3-4-7	W-D-L	5-7-2
0.93	Pts / game	1.57
1.14	Goals for / game	1.50
1.71	Goals against / game	1.07
57%	Over 2.5	29%
50%	BTTS	57%
29%	Clean sheets	43%
29%	Failed to score	14%
3-2-2	Home record	3-3-1
0-2-5	Away record	2-4-1
W2	Streak	D1

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. JEF United Chiba · Yokohama F. Marinos

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	12.5
3.5	Shots on target	4.0
4.3	Corners	5.7
2.67	Cards	1.50
14.0	Fouls	12.7
46	Possession %	53
1.67	xG	1.37
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.0	Shots	14.7
2.7	Shots on target	4.2
4.3	Corners	6.0
1.50	Cards	2.33
10.3	Fouls	15.0
54	Possession %	47
0.94	xG	1.50
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
JEF United Chiba	Metric	Yokohama F. Marinos
1.20	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.60	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
4.50 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
8.00	Total shots	11.33 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.00	Corners	3.33 (better)
41.0	Possession %	45.3 (better)
353	Passes	421 (better)
	Tackles
15.50	Fouls	10.33 (better)
3.00	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.33 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

JEF United Chiba wins: 0
Draws: 1
Yokohama F. Marinos wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

JEF United Chiba v Yokohama F. Marinos0–02026-10-17
JEF United Chiba v Yokohama F. Marinos2–32026-04-29
Yokohama F. Marinos v JEF United Chiba2–02026-03-14

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5