JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5WWDLD17th3–0Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5DLLLL20th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
JEF United Chiba
Avispa Fukuoka
13
Shots
4
4
Shots on target
2
4
Corners
1
12
Fouls
14
2
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
1
436
Passes
366
55%
Possession %
45%
1.86
xG
0.21
33%
27%
40%
1 · JEF United ChibaXAvispa Fukuoka · 2
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
29%
Both score
56%
Model pick
Avispa Fukuoka 40%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.43
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
44.5%
2.25
1.95 William Hill
51.3%
-6.8
Match result
JEF United Chiba
33.0%
3.03
3.15 Dafabet
31.7%
+1.3
Match result
Draw
26.9%
3.72
3.30 Betfair
30.3%
-3.4
Match result
Avispa Fukuoka
40.1%
2.50
2.42 Betano
41.3%
-1.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
75.9%
1.32
1.37 BetVictor
73.0%
+2.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
24.1%
4.15
3.10 Betfair
32.3%
-8.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
50.9%
1.97
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
+4.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
49.1%
2.04
1.72 Betano
58.1%
-9.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
28.8%
3.47
3.90 BetVictor
25.6%
+3.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
71.2%
1.41
1.27 Betano
78.7%
-7.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
55.5%
1.80
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
+3.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Avispa Fukuoka favoured against JEF United Chiba
Our model makes JEF United Chiba 33% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Avispa Fukuoka at 40%. The goal projection is 1.28 for JEF United Chiba against 1.43 for Avispa Fukuoka — a slight edge to Avispa Fukuoka on expected output. A combined 2.71 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
0-1 9%
1-2 9%
1-0 8%
2-1 8%
This season
Season records for JEF United Chiba and Avispa Fukuoka
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
JEF United Chiba
Metric
Avispa Fukuoka
1.00
Goals scored
1.00
1.80 (better)
Goals conceded
2.20
1.82 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.17
—
Big chances *
—
3.33 (better)
Shots on target
3.00
15.33 (better)
Total shots
11.25
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.67 (better)
Corners
3.75
44.0
Possession %
46.5 (better)
324
Passes
386 (better)
—
Tackles
—
14.67
Fouls
13.00 (better)
3.00
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
3.67
Yellow cards
2.50 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
JEF United Chiba v 
Avispa Fukuoka