Jagiellonia v Wisla Plock

9th1–012th

13:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Jagiellonia		Wisla Plock
21	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	4
8	Corners	3
16	Fouls	12
0	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
483	Passes	424
53%	Possession %	47%
1.81	xG	1.01

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Jagiellonia 57%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.80 – 0.95

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 2.5	48.1%	2.08	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	+2.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.7%	3.36	2.70 BetVictor	37.0%	-7.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.3%	1.42	1.50 Betano	66.7%	+3.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.8%	1.93	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-10.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.2%	2.07	2.40 Betfair	41.7%	+6.6
Match result	Jagiellonia	56.8%	1.76	2.04 Dafabet	49.0%	+7.8
Match result	Draw	24.1%	4.15	3.75 Dafabet	26.7%	-2.6
Match result	Wisla Plock	19.1%	5.23	3.80 Dafabet	26.3%	-7.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.6%	1.30	1.21 Betano	82.6%	-6.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.4%	4.27	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	+1.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.9%	1.93	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-6.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Jagiellonia favoured against Wisla Plock

Our model makes Jagiellonia 57% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 24% and Wisla Plock at 19%. The goal projection is 1.80 for Jagiellonia against 0.95 for Wisla Plock — a substantial edge to Jagiellonia on expected output. A combined 2.75 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-0 11%; 2-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock
Jagiellonia		Wisla Plock
13	Played	13
7-0-6	W-D-L	4-3-6
1.62	Pts / game	1.15
1.38	Goals for / game	1.08
1.38	Goals against / game	1.62
54%	Over 2.5	54%
54%	BTTS	46%
23%	Clean sheets	23%
23%	Failed to score	38%
4-0-3	Home record	2-2-1
3-0-3	Away record	2-1-5
W3	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Jagiellonia · Wisla Plock

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.8	Shots	10.5
4.8	Shots on target	3.5
5.3	Corners	4.7
0.50	Cards	1.87
11.7	Fouls	14.2
57	Possession %	45
1.98	xG	1.12
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.0	Shots	18.5
5.0	Shots on target	5.0
5.5	Corners	5.7
1.83	Cards	2.67
12.8	Fouls	13.8
43	Possession %	55
1.74	xG	2.05
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Jagiellonia	Metric	Wisla Plock
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
1.80	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.66 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.22
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	5.00 (better)
14.00 (better)	Total shots	12.25
	Touches in opp. box
3.33	Corners	4.25 (better)
55.3 (better)	Possession %	47.8
470 (better)	Passes	440
	Tackles
16.00	Fouls	11.50 (better)
3.67	Offsides	1.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.67	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Jagiellonia wins: 2
Draws: 0
Wisla Plock wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Ekstraklasa table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	+21	32	Lech Poznan won 4 of the last 5
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	+11	31	Gornik Zabrze won 2 of the last 5
3	Legia Warszawa	14	6	6	2	+10	24	Legia Warszawa won 1 of the last 5
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Pogon Szczecin won 3 of the last 5
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	+3	24	Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	+1	23	Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	+5	21	GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5
9	Jagiellonia	13	7	0	6	0	21	Jagiellonia won 3 of the last 5
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	-7	18	Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	-7	15	Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5
13	Widzew Łódź	14	2	8	4	+1	14	Widzew Łódź won 1 of the last 5
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	-12	14	Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	-7	12	Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5
16	Raków Częstochowa	14	4	0	10	-8	12	Raków Częstochowa won 3 of the last 5
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	-8	10	Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5
18	Wieczysta Kraków	14	2	2	10	-10	8	Wieczysta Kraków won 0 of the last 5